Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Tuesday’s MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Miami Marlins.
The Marlins (40-39) are on a roll, having won 14 of their 18 games during the month of June. Miami will hope to bounce back tonight after a 4-3 loss against the Rangers (38-40) on Monday. Texas, despite its sub-.500 record, is just 1.5 games out of first place in the AL West. Which of these two playoff contenders will emerge victorious in South Beach?
The Marlins are favorites (-163) over the Rangers, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Texas and Miami on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The strength of this Rangers squad is on the mound. However, it’ll be one of the team’s lesser-used arms getting the nod tonight. Cal Quantrill is an experienced eighth-year pro, but he has yet to make a start this season. Over 15 appearances (29.1 IP), the right-hander has notched a 3.68 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 19 strikeouts (5.8 K/9). However, he’s been quite fortunate to have those numbers. Per Savant, the Canadian has a lackluster 5.34 xERA, .273 xBA and 15.2% strikeout rate. Those three statistics all rank within the eighth percentile among qualified starters.
Granted, Quantrill could keep rolling this evening against his old team. The Marlins have posted a .702 OPS against right-handed pitching, tied for seventh-worst in baseball. Still, this group’s biggest weakness is hitting for power. They do a solid job when it comes to creating havoc on the base paths. Miami is 11th in on-base percentage (.322) and first in stolen bases (88). Infielders Otto Lopez (132 wRC+) and Xavier Edwards (122 wRC+) are both legitimate All-Star candidates. In comparison, Quantrill has struggled throughout his career when it comes to giving up hard contact (9.1 H/9).
As for the home team, Sandy Alcantara will toe the slab tonight. The former Cy Young winner is a bit of a wild card these days, equally capable of excellence or disaster. Fortunately for the Fish, he’s been dominant in recent weeks. During his last four outings, Alcantara has posted a 2.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. His fastball still has plenty of life (97.4 MPH), all while possessing excellent control (5.6 BB%). As an added bonus, the Dominican is a true workhorse. He’s gone at least six innings in 13 of his 16 starts this season. That includes each of Alcantara’s last four appearances, which came against above-average Phillies, Pirates, Nationals and Rays lineups.
On paper, the Rangers don’t wield the same level of offensive firepower as those four clubs. They’re scoring 4.01 runs per game this season, fourth-fewest in the majors. To make matters worse, slugging shortstop Corey Seager (concussion) is on the injured list. Texas ranks inside the bottom ten in home runs (79) and slugging percentage (.387). In comparison, Alcantara has been terrific when it comes to limiting the long ball (1.0 HR/9). The Rangers have only scored 38 runs during their previous ten contests, tied for sixth-fewest in baseball.
Quantrill’s tendency to allow base hits plays right into Miami’s hands. The Marlins, equipped with several contact-first batters, could drive up the pitch count early this evening. In comparison, the Rangers are sending a spot starter to the hill. Combined with a mediocre lineup, and it’s difficult to see Texas hanging around on Tuesday.
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