In the quest for the Premier League title, it’s advantage, Arsenal. Entering play on Monday, the Gunners had a six-point lead over Manchester City, with the Sky Blues required to win both of their games in hand to wrest back control of the Premier League. But Manchester City struggled mightily against Everton, requiring a stoppage time equalizer just to salvage a point. Now, the title race is out of its hands entirely.

Still, the Sky Blues can keep the pressure on Arsenal, which now has the Champions League final against Paris Saint-Germain at the end of the month to prioritize. A Manchester City victory over Brentford on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET (5:30 p.m. local) would effectively require the Gunners to beat relegation-threatened West Ham on Sunday, while defeat against the Bees would effectively secure the title for Arsenal.

The Sky Blues are -290 favorites to to take all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Brentford is +650. There are +475 odds that the teams will draw, which would also put the Gunners in a comfortable position to clinch the title before the final match day.

Man City vs. Brentford prediction, pick

Manchester City has been pretty untouchable in the Premier League as of late, as it hasn’t suffered a league defeat since January 17, with its three losses since then all coming in the Champions League. But given that the Sky Blues started with two losses in their first three matches and were tasked with chasing down a national giant in Arsenal, even draws aren’t sufficient in the title charge, and Manchester City has had eight of those (one more than the Gunners). The Bees, meanwhile, have drawn nine times, including in four of their last six matches, but they managed a 3-0 win over West Ham United to send the Hammers into the relegation zone and keep themselves in contention for Champions League football. They currently sit seventh, one point behind Bournemouth, and if Aston Villa wins the Europa League while finishing fifth, the sixth-place team would compete in Europe’s highest competition next season. Either way, Brentford is likely to compete in some form of European competition, provided that it stays clear of Everton, Chelsea, and Fulham, who are all three points behind.

The Sky Blues’ talent speaks for itself. Erling Haaland is the most clinical striker in the Premier League, smashing home 25 goals in 33 matches this season, and he has a well-balanced squad behind him, with Phil Foden, Nico O’Reilly, Tijjani Reijnders, and Antoine Semenyo all contributing at least five goals. Plus, Rayan Cherki has been excellent in distribution, providing 11 assists, and Haaland, Jeremy Doku, and Matheus Nunes have been comfortable in that role as well. All in all, Manchester City has produced the second-most expected goals, behind only Chelsea, and thanks to Haaland’s clinical finishing, it leads the league in goals scored. It’s done an excellent job putting itself in the right positions to succeed, taking the most touches in the box, and it has been the league’s best passing team. Additionally, the Sky Blues have been brilliant defensively, trailing only the Gunners by both expected goals and goals allowed, and they’ve won a majority of both ground and aerial duels while playing the offsides trap to perfection and forcing the most high turnovers ending in a shot. The’ve been vulnerable to the occasional good look, giving up the highest shot-in-box percentage, but because it has allowed the second-fewest shots on target and has one of England’s most clinical goalkeepers in Gianluigi Donnarumma, who ranks third in the division in save percentage.

Still, the Bees are in position for European football for a reason. They’re led by Igor Thiago, who didn’t score in any of his eight appearances last season but has netted 22 times in 34 starts, good for second in the Golden Boot race behind only Haaland. Thiago doesn’t have as strong of a supporting cast behind him, as Kevin Schade, Dango Ouattara, Mikkel Damsgaard, Mathias Jensen, and Keane Lewis-Potter are the only other players to score multiple times. But thanks to Thiago, Brentford has a strong attack overall, ranking sixth in expected goals and first in expected goals per shot. In particular, the Bees have been clinical on the fast-break, and they’ve also been among the best teams from set piece situations, and they rank fourth in cross completion percentage. Defensively, Brentford has been similarly sound, allowing the seventh-fewest expected goals and the seventh-fewest shots on target, and it trails only Arsenal in shot-in-box percentage. Still, the Bees have been gettable in ground-duel situations, as they rank dead last in the league in ground duel win rate, and they rank third-to-last in tackles despite having possession for less than half of their matches. Caoimhín Kelleher is a decent goalkeeper, but he’s no Donnarumma.

Brentford struggles to pass, ranking fifth-to-last in pass completion percentage and second-to-last in pass completion percentage on passes into the final third, and that could be a problem against Pep Guardiola’s high press. The Bees also haven’t been particularly clinical with their chances, ranking fourth-to-last in goals minus expected goals, so they aren’t well-suited to take advantage of Manchester City’s tendency to allow shots in the box. Additionally, the Sky Blues don’t give up many set pieces, and though they’ve allowed the second-most fast breaks, opponents have scored the fourth-fewest goals in such situations. All of those factors should point the arrow towards Manchester City. Still, though, the Sky Blues rarely keep clean sheets against the strongest attacks on the continent, allowing one goal to Arsenal and five across two legs to Real Madrid; at this point, that’s exactly what Brentford has. At +475, banking on the Bees to find a late consolation effort is value too good to pass up on.

Best Bet: Manchester City and Brentford to Draw (+475)