Ladies and gentlemen, we have ourselves a series. The Vegas Golden Knights are an experienced bunch of veterans, having been battle-tested in the postseason for the majority of the franchise’s existence. Despite a core that’s been on this stage many times before, they’re being pushed by an upstart Anaheim Ducks squad that just about everyone picked against to begin the postseason. This scrappy group of young talent and vets knotted this series at two games apiece last time they played. What will we get in tonight’s Game 5 as the venue shifts back to Sin City?

Here’s a Ducks vs. Golden Knights prediction and pick for tonight’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ducks vs. Golden Knights Game 5 prediction, preview

These teams have now traded wins in four consecutive games, and as the series heads back to The Fortress, it wouldn’t be shocking to see it happen again. Here’s a breakdown of how the numbers shake out so far.

This has been a pretty even series overall with 13 goals for the Golden Knights and 10 for the Ducks. Yes, there’s a gap there, but the underlying xGF of both teams is separated by a margin of just 0.03, with 12.75 for Vegas and 12.72 for Anaheim. The Ducks have maintained an edge in shots on goal in every contest, outshooting their opponent 118-93 overall. However, their shot quality is outdone by the Golden Knights, who have 51 total high-danger chances while the Ducks have 49 — it’s unsurprising to see eight goals for Vegas on those chances with Anaheim converting just five.

If we narrow it down to just even-strength situations, the Ducks do have more of an advantage, at least in theory. They’ve scored eight goals to their opponents’ nine, but have an xGF of 9.67 to the Golden Knights’ 8.36. When it comes to the power play though, Vegas has hit at a 25.0% clip with four goals in 12 tries while Anaheim sits at only 13.3% with two goals in 15 opportunities. That’s not shocking in the slightest since the Golden Knights were sixth on the power play in the regular season at 24.6% compared to an 18.6% rate for the Ducks, who finished 23rd in the stat. The same goes for the penalty kills, which were seventh (81.4%) and 27th (76.4%), respectively.

The netminders have shown some up-and-down play in this series, but there is a surprising trend to note. Vegas’ Carter Hart has allowed two or fewer goals in three of four games even despite facing high shot volume in each. He’s tightened up his play and has been better against high-danger chances as well. Compare that to Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal, who has allowed three goals in each of the last two games after allowing just three in the first two games combined, and it’s clear that Hart is the more consistent of the pair.

Ducks vs. Golden Knights Game 5 pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Golden Knights as -162 home favorites on the Moneyline tonight, while the Ducks come in with +136 odds on the road. The game total sits at 6.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 74% of straight bets on Vegas to win, 58% of wagers on the Golden Knights to cover the -1.5 puck line, and 60% on the total’s over.

Special teams have been the biggest differentiator in this series, and based on the 82-game sample of the regular season, it seems unlikely that the disparity between these teams shifts much. Vegas’ kill unit is simply better than its opponent, which has shut down an Anaheim man advantage that seemingly couldn’t be stopped in round one. Anything can happen given how these goalies both have their fair share of poor moments and that the Ducks are putting a ton of volume on the net, but the Golden Knights are heading back to their home barn and have the crowd behind them as well. They’re favored for a reason in this one, and I believe that as long as they play their usual game and try to get those higher-quality chances while taking advantage of any opportunities on the power play, they should come out of this one with a 3-2 series lead in regulation.

Best bet: Golden Knights 60 min line (-105)