At this point, it’s nearly assured that one of the Western Conference’s second round series will see the Oklahoma City Thunder face off against the Los Angeles Lakers, but now, it’s a question of when that series will begin. Had the Lakers completed their sweep over the Houston Rockets last night, they would’ve had the rest advantage over the Thunder regardless. Now, Oklahoma City can secure the rest advantage by completing its sweep of the No. 8 Phoenix Suns tonight.

The Suns have their backs against the wall, so tonight’s 9:40 p.m. ET game in Phoenix is their last chance to avoid the same fate that befell the 2024-25 Memphis Grizzlies, who were swept by the Thunder in the first round as the first stepping stone in Oklahoma City’s path to a title.

Both teams entered the postseason with a relatively clean bill of health, but Jalen Williams (hamstring) is out for the Thunder, as he has been for much of the season. Mark Williams (foot) remains out for the Suns, as he has all series, while Jordan Goodwin (calf) is questionable to return after getting injured in Game 1.

Oklahoma City is a 10.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-500 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 214.5. Phoenix is +380 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this must-win clash and offer a prediction.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns preview, prediction

Likely MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shook off a rough Game 1 by being his typical self in Games 2 and 3. Combined between those games, he scored 79 points on 65-38-95 shooting splits while also adding 17 assists. Chet Holmgren has continued to play elite defense, blocking four shots in Game 2 and managing two blocks and a steal in Game 3, and while he wasn’t very efficient, Ajay Mitchell filled in as a starter nicely in Game 3, scoring 15 points. The Thunder have also gotten consistent contributions from their bench, with Alex Caruso and Jaylin Williams particularly standing out.

Meanwhile, with Mark Williams injured, the Suns just haven’t had enough depth to compete. Their big three of Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, and Jalen Green have all played well, with all three players scoring at least 20 points in two of the three games, but only two other players (Royce O’Neale in Game 2 and Oso Ighodaro in Game 3) have even contributed 10 points in any game. Collin Gillespie has been particularly disappointing; he’s just two-for-10 from beyond the arc over the last two games after finishing seventh in total three-pointers made during the regular season.

Thunder at Suns pick, best bet

Shots at the rim are the easiest in basketball, and it’s always Oklahoma City’s top priority to take those away. So far this series, the Thunder have done a nearly impeccable job of that, allowing just 17.7 attempts per game at the rim and forcing Phoenix to miss nearly half of its shots in that zone. To their credit, the Suns have also done a good job stopping Oklahoma City from getting downhill — the Thunder have attempted the third-fewest tries within five feet among the 16 playoff participants — but they haven’t done such a good job preventing those shots from going in. Oklahoma City has made 73.4% of its layups, and even if some regression to the mean is due for both teams, the Thunder were still the best rim-protecting team and one of the best finishing teams during the regular season, while Phoenix was below-average on both sides of the ball.

That’ll especially be the case if Oklahoma City continues to win the rebounding battle, which it struggled with throughout the regular season and the 2024-25 playoffs. The Thunder have snagged more boards in two of the three games, and while Goodwin’s potential return could help with that — the Suns grabbed rebounds at a rate 3.7 percentage points higher with him on the floor — that alone won’t be enough to make up a double-digit deficit. Phoenix has been careless with the ball, losing the turnover battle in all three games (by more than 10 in Games 1 and 2), and though both teams have been pretty foul-happy, Oklahoma City attempted more free throws in both Games 1 and 2.

In addition to trying anything to improve their penetration inside and being more competitive on the glass and in transition, the Suns will also need to dominate from the perimeter in order to keep their season alive. They’ve made that task difficult for themselves, though; among playoff participants, only the Philadelphia 76ers have conceded more wide-open threes per game, and it’s not like they’ve gotten particularly unlucky. Phoenix’s shooting could regress towards the mean, with Gillespie and Allen especially due for improved long-range accuracy, but by the same token, Isaiah Joe and Luguentz Dort could also benefit from more shooting luck. In the long run, the Suns should make more threes than the Thunder, since they made more during the regular season and have contested more triples this series, but that margin isn’t nearly enough to overturn their deficits everywhere else.

I’m going pretty simple with this one; no game this series has finished within even a 10-point margin, and while Phoenix covered a 10.5-point spread in three of the four regular season games, one of those games saw Oklahoma City sit each of its regular starters besides Dort, who needed to play 20 minutes to ensure All-Defensive Team eligibility. The Suns have also had a different matchup strategy than they did in the regular season; Brooks earned the primary Gilgeous-Alexander assignment during the regular season and Gillespie has so far in the playoffs, and Brooks is a superior defender. Additionally, Mark Williams did a decent job slowing down Holmgren during the regular season, and Brooks and Ighodaro have not been as effective this round. The Thunder will clinch their rest advantage headed into the series against Los Angeles with an 11-point win tonight.

Best bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (-112)