The All-Star Race lands at the Monster Mile for the first time in the event’s 42-year history. A million dollars and zero points. The format runs 350 laps split 75-75-200, with the top 26 inverted between Segments 1 and 2 and the final 26-car field set by combined segments.

Dover runs the 750-horsepower short-track package in 2026. That same package has been on track four times this season: Phoenix, Darlington, Martinsville, and Bristol. Those four races are the cleanest read on who has the car right now. Concrete-surface history at Bristol and Nashville fills in the rest. The data points at three names with real edges.

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NASCAR Best Bets for the NASCAR All-Star Race

Denny Hamlin | Race Winner (+370)

The veteran JGR driver has won the last Dover races and has a top-5 finish in three of the four Gen 7 races at the Monster Mile.  Nobody in this field has a cleaner Dover Gen 7 resume. Stretch the lens to his full Dover career, and the picture stays elite — thirteen starts, three wins, an average finish of 10.2 from an average start of 8.3.

Current form backs the history. Through four short-track package races this season, Hamlin sits at a 6.75 average finish with 297 laps led, the second-most in the field with this racing package. The laps led come from Martinsville. That’s not a great data point, but that’s not the point. Toyota is fast. Hamlin is running well. The No. 11 JGR Toyota team is always on top of the ball when it comes to strategy. The Dover All-Star format requires speed and a bit of strategy.

Kyle Larson | Race Winner (+550)

The Monster Mile has historically ranked among its strongest ovals. A 7.18 average finish across eleven Dover starts is the best mark of any active driver with double-digit visits to the track, and the lone win came back in 2019 with more close calls since.

His recent race at Bristol confirms the speed is still there. Larson led 284 laps and finished third on the same package Dover gets. He has led 304 laps across the four short-track-package races this year, the most in the field. The 11.75 average finish across that span hides what the speed sheet shows: he runs at the front, then something goes sideways. A 32nd at Darlington stands as the lone disaster. Hendrick had an awful week at The Glen. They need to bounce back. It should not be difficult for a team that has a closet filled with oversized million-dollar checks.

Ty Gibbs | Race Winner (+1200)

A Bristol win on the same package several weeks ago says everything about where this car is right now. Gibbs is four-for-four in top 10s across the 2026 short-track package with three top-5 finishes and an average finish of 3.75 — second-best in the field in the high horsepower 2026 rules package.

Dover has been quiet for Gibbs, but not silent. His three Gen 7 starts have produced a 9.33 average finish. The track has not been a problem, but it has not been a signature either. The Joe Gibbs Racing No. 54 Toyota has been buried in the data conversation behind Blaney, Hamlin and Larson all spring. Less ownership at the books, less ownership in DFS, and a car that has quietly run inside the top fifteen for 91% of its laps in this package. There is leverage with Joe’s grandson. Gibbs took Bristol from a top-5 start in a 500-lap concrete grind with this same horsepower. Dover is shorter, but the setup is the same.