Kicking off today’s two-game WNBA slate, the Portland Fire will take on the New York Liberty. This already marks the third matchup between these two sides despite it being the early stages of the season. These two teams have split their matchups to this point, with the Portland Fire producing a 98-96 win in the first game before the New York Liberty got back with a 100-82 win in the latter half of the back-to-back games.

Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Liberty enter as 11.5-point favorites and hold -550 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fire hold +410 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 174.5 points.

Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fire at Liberty matchup.

Fire at Liberty Preview

In their first season back in the WNBA, the Portland Fire are off to a 3-3 start to the year. Their three wins have come against the Liberty, Sun and Tempo, while they have come up short against the Liberty, Sky and Fever. Through its first six games, Portland has gone 2-4 against the spread, and the game total is 4-2 to the over/under.

Bridget Carleton headlines the production for the Fire, posting averages of 16.5 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists. Carla Leite adds 15.0 points and 4.8 assists, while Sug Sutton and Sarah Ashlee Barker also average in double figures. Karlie Samuelson and Megan Gustafson will be looked at as the veteran leaders, with each holding seven years of WNBA experience. Nine players on the roster have one or fewer seasons of experience, making this one of the youngest rosters in the league.

Through their first six games, the Fire are scoring 86.3 points per game, which ranks eighth in the WNBA. They also rank seventh in offensive rating. Defensively, opponents are scoring 91.0 points per game against Portland. This is the second-worst rate in the league, and it also ranks 14th in defensive rating.

After winning the 2024 WNBA Championship, the New York Liberty took a step back last season in which injuries bothered their outlook. The organization made some major changes, which included firing head coach Sandy Brondello and making some notable roster decisions. Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones each returned as the stars. Satou Sabally, Rebecca Allen and Raquel Carrera were brought in as key additions, while Natasha Cloud, Emma Meesseman and Nyara Sabally left in the offseason. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Han Xu were also brought back to the team. New York enters with a 3-3 record to start the season. It has gone 2-4 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in four of its six matchups.

Stewart headlines the production for New York, averaging 20.7 points and 9.3 rebounds. Ionescu made her return from an ankle injury in the previous game after missing the opening five games of the season. The four-time All-Star added 11 points, seven assists and five rebounds in her debut and will look to build off this. Jones adds 12.7 points and 7.3 rebounds of her own, while Pauline Astier, Satou Sabally and Marine Johannes are also averaging in double figures. Ionescu is considered questionable for tonight due to injury management on her left foot issue, while Leonie Fiebich, Laney-Hamilton and Marine Fauthoux will be sidelined tonight.

Through their first six games, the Liberty rank fourth in the WNBA in scoring at 91 points per game and are producing the second-best offensive rating. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87.7 points per game against New York, which ranks 10th in the league. New York also ranks 10th in defensive rating.

Fire at Liberty Pick, Best Bet

It has been an encouraging start to the season for the Portland Fire. They hold a 3-3 record, with their victory over this Liberty team their most impressive result to this point. In that matchup, Portland was able to scrap back from a 17-point deficit while New York held a lead for 77% of the matchup. Sarah Ashlee Barker had a game-winning put-back at the buzzer to secure the 98-96 win.

On the other side of the matchup, it has been a bit of a puzzling start to the year for the Liberty. While the talent is evident on the roster, New York has yet to click on all cylinders. The Liberty are expected to be one of the most dominant offenses in the league, but they are coming off a 70-point performance against the Valkyries and a 76-point outing against the Wings over their past two games. They are 1-3 across their past four, with their lone win coming in the second half of the back-to-back matchup against this Fire team.

While it is too premature to hit the panic button for the Liberty’s outlook on the year, this is a favorable spot that the Fire are capable of taking advantage of. This young squad plays with admirable spunk and has more talent than may have initially appeared on paper. Portland is also coming off a season-high 99-point outing in its previous victory over the Tempo, and it will look to carry this momentum into tonight.

I can’t quite talk myself into the moneyline, but the 11.5-point spread feels too significant. We have already seen the Fire beat the Liberty outright this year, and the 100-82 loss in the following matchup is not enough to scare me away tonight. The underdog has won three of the past four Liberty matchups outright and covered the spread in four of the last five. If New York is not scoring at a high rate, the door will be left open for Portland to have a chance to steal another win. Expect things to play out this way as the fit issues have led to some early growing pains with the Liberty. New York simply has not looked like the dominant team it is expected to be, and it is going to take a larger sample size at full strength to fully figure things out. Count on this to be a matchup that comes down to the final few possessions and for the 11.5-point spread to prove too significant against this spunky Portland team.

Best Bet: Portland Fire +11.5 (-118)