Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates and Diamondbacks reset at Chase Field with Pittsburgh at 19-17 and Arizona at 17-17, but the offensive read has to start with the park and the starter matchup. Arizona won the opener 9-0, backed by Eduardo Rodriguez’s seven scoreless innings, seven D-backs walks, a five-run sixth, two-run doubles from Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno, and Ketel Marte’s triple/single/two-run/two-RBI night. Pittsburgh’s offense was buried at 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position and only two hits, yet this is a much friendlier rebound lane: Chase Field’s roof is listed open for Wednesday, with Phoenix sitting in the mid-80s early and still around 80° later in the evening. That gives hard contact, left-handed lift and alley speed plenty of value. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Paul Skenes gives Pittsburgh the game’s best pitcher, which matters for side discussion but also explains why the better bet lives on the Pirates’ scoring lane. Skenes enters 4-2 with a 3.18 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 34.0 innings, 39 strikeouts, seven walks and four HR allowed, and the Statcast game preview backs the ace read with 86.1 mph average exit velocity allowed, 31.0% hard-hit rate, .240 xwOBA and a .301 xwOBAcon. Michael Soroka is the attack point: 4-1, 4.70 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 30.2 innings, 36 strikeouts and nine walks, with a much louder contact sheet at 90.5 mph average exit velocity allowed, 42.0% hard-hit rate, .349 wOBA, .353 xwOBA, 11.4% barrel rate and a massive 43.2% sweet-spot rate. That is the profile behind a team-total play: plenty of balls squared, enough traffic, and a warm park that can turn line drives into crooked innings.
Pittsburgh’s split against right-handed pitching is far stronger than Tuesday’s shutout implies. The Pirates are hitting .251/.345/.397 with a .742 OPS against righties, with 219 hits, 41 doubles, three triples, 27 HR, 118 RBI, 109 walks, 19 HBP and 223 strikeouts across 1,008 plate appearances. The .345 OBP is the key number because this ticket does not need a homer-only script. It needs traffic against Soroka, then one or two extra-base events from the left-handed and switch-hit core. Brandon Lowe is the cleanest matchup bat in that lane, batting .288 with six HR, 19 RBI, 17 walks, .418 OBP, .613 SLG and a 1.031 OPS in 98 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. Ryan O’Hearn adds stability at .306 with four HR and 16 RBI in 102 plate appearances against righties, giving Pittsburgh another top-half bat who can convert baserunners without requiring perfect launch weather.
The higher-volatility piece is Oneil Cruz, and this is the right environment to price his ceiling. Cruz has nine HR, 28 RBI and 11 steals on the season board, and his last-30 sample includes 34 hits, nine HR, 27 RBI and 24 runs. The last-seven line is more modest at eight hits, one HR, four RBI, six runs and one steal, but the combination of leadoff plate volume, power, speed and Soroka’s barrel/sweet-spot leakage keeps him central to a five-run path. Pittsburgh also gets support below the headline bats: O’Hearn’s season line sits at .308, five HR, 24 RBI and an .868 OPS, while Nick Gonzales gives the order a contact bridge with a team-leading .317 average on the StatMuse team board. The Pirates can clear five with Cruz/Lowe damage, O’Hearn run conversion and one lower-order RBI swing rather than needing a full game of clean sequencing.
Arizona’s counter is real enough to avoid the run line as the preferred shape. The Diamondbacks just scored nine, drew seven walks, and showed an HR-free scoring lane through Marte, Perdomo, Moreno and Adrian Del Castillo. They also own the late-cover path if Skenes gives only five or six and Pittsburgh has to protect a lead with middle relief. Arizona’s bullpen, though, is not a shutdown reason to avoid the Pirates team total. The D-backs pen ranks 22nd by ERA at 4.76, with a 1.220 WHIP, nine saves, a 60% save rate and six blown saves. Tuesday’s opener helped Arizona’s leverage group because Rodriguez handled seven innings and Jonathan Loáisiga plus Brandyn Garcia covered only two low-stress frames, but the season-long relief profile still gives Pittsburgh late access if Soroka exits around the middle innings.
Best bet: Pirates team total over 4.5 runs +120. The standard Pirates over 3.5 -145 is safer, and Pirates -1.5 +135 has real appeal with Skenes on the mound, but the alt team total isolates the cleanest offensive mismatch without asking Skenes and the bullpen to protect a multi-run margin. Soroka’s .353 xwOBA, 11.4% barrel rate, 43.2% sweet-spot rate, Pittsburgh’s .742 OPS and .345 OBP against righties, Brandon Lowe’s 1.031 OPS in the split, and the open-roof Chase Field setting all point toward five runs being more live than the plus price suggests. The ticket fails if Soroka’s home form beats the overall contact sheet and Pittsburgh strands traffic again, but the better read has the Pirates turning Tuesday’s empty baserunners into enough damage.
Projected score: Pirates 5, Diamondbacks 3.
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