Tipping off in the second half of tonight’s NBA playoff double-header, the Minnesota Timberwolves will face off with the San Antonio Spurs. Game 1 was a shocking result in which Anthony Edwards made his return to the court and led Minnesota to an outright victory as 13.5-point underdogs. The young Spurs showed a little bit of their inexperience, while Minnesota’s toughness and grit led them to an opening-game series win.

Looking at the odds for Game 2, the Spurs are 10.5-point favorites and hold -395 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves hold +310 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 216.5 points.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs preview

While Minnesota has largely been left out of the conversation as true contenders, this is a team that has gone to back-to-back Western Conference Finals leading into this season. They finished the regular season with a 49-33 overall record, which slotted them in sixth place in the West. Despite dealing with injuries to Anthony Edwards and several other key players, Minnesota eliminated the Denver Nuggets in six games to keep their season alive. The Timberwolves have gone 41-48 against the spread, and the game total is 38-51 to the over/under.

Injuries have become the most notable storyline for this Timberwolves team. Donte DiVincenzo suffered a torn Achilles tendon in the early minutes of Game 4 of the opening round, which will keep him sidelined for the foreseeable future. Ayo Dosunmu is considered available after being sidelined since Game 5 of the previous round due to a right calf injury. Anthony Edwards is officially listed as questionable with his left knee issue, but he looked like himself after returning in the opening game.

Looking at the production this year, Anthony Edwards remains the head of the snake. The four-time All-Star is posting averages of 28.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists on the season. Julius Randle has outperformed his expectations, scoring 21.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game. Jaden McDaniels has scaled up his scoring role in a major way during this playoff run and helps set the tone for this team. Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Mike Conley also play notable roles.

As a team, the Timberwolves average 118.0 points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, and sixth in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 114.6 points per game against Minnesota, which ranks 12th in the league. They also rank eighth in defensive rating, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage.

The San Antonio Spurs’ young core has made the collective leap into the contending category together, with the roster proving to be much deeper than just the Victor Wembanyama show. They finished the regular season with a 62-20, which slotted them in second place in the Western Conference. San Antonio finished the regular season by winning 19 of their final 22 games and defeated the Portland Trail Blazers in five games in the opening round. The Spurs have gone 50-37-2 to the spread, and the game total has gone 38-51 to the over/under.

Victor Wembanyama headlines the production as the most game-changing defensive talent in the league, with overall averages of 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 3.1 blocks this season. De’Aaron Fox provides some necessary veteran experience to this roster, averaging 18.6 points and 6.7 assists, while Stephon Castle helps set the tone on both sides of the ball and adds 16.7 points, 7.4 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game. Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, and Julian Champagnie also play key roles. Carter Bryant is the lone player on the injury report and is listed as questionable with a right foot sprain.

The Spurs rank third in the NBA in scoring, adding 119.8 points per game. They also rank fourth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 111.5 points per game against San Antonio, which is the eighth-best rate in the league. Mitch Johnson’s squad also ranks third in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field goal percentage, and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 1 Takeaways:

It was a surprising Game 1 result in this series, as Minnesota’s experience proved important. San Antonio improved their record from 34-48 last season to 62-20 this year. They have looked the part of legitimate contenders across the regular season, but there is some amount of playoff scars that still need to be carved, and the Timberwolves have much more postseason experience.

Minnesota ultimately produced a 104-102 victory in the series-opening matchup. San Antonio got a good look at the buzzer for a potential game-winning three-pointer by Julian Champagnie, but the shot was off the mark. Spurs’ head coach Mitch Johnson elected to pass on calling a timeout and for the shot to occur organically. San Antonio got a look they should feel solid about, but it still felt like a massive missed opportunity from this Spurs team.

Overall, neither team extended a lead by more than nine points in the matchup, and each side led for 35%+ of the matchup. The rebounding battle was 47-46, the teams shot 46% and 45% from the floor, and the points in the paint were 58-52.

The Spurs are the more talented team who have played at a higher level for most of the season. But the Timberwolves have not been given the proper respect and have taken advantage of each opportunity they have had. Anthony Edwards looked healthier than seemed realistically possible. The Spurs are facing more adversity than was the case for most of the season, and they will hope for a better result in Game 2.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 2 prediction, pick

My lean would be that the Spurs put forth a much more complete effort and find a way to win by a comfortable margin tonight. San Antonio has the talent advantage, which is further magnified by the injuries to this Timberwolves team. However, the 10.5-point spread is a bit too significant for my liking.

Instead, I am backing the game total to remain under the 216.5 total in this matchup. The game total has gone under in 51 of the 89 games played by each of these teams this year. The two sides combined for 206 points in the Game 1 matchup, remaining under the 218.5 line.

Victor Wembanyama is a game-changing defensive talent who racked up 12 blocks in Game 1. Edwards is willing to try him at a rate more than most, but you cannot teach size, and Wembanyama has the defensive instincts to match this. On the other side of the ball, the Spurs are at their best when playing an up-tempo style of basketball. De’Aaron Fox can go coast-to-coast as quickly as anyone in the league, and Stephon Castle is not far behind him in this conversation.

The Timberwolves will make it a clear priority to slow the pace of play and keep this a half-court battle. San Antonio tallied 27 fast-break points in Game 1, and Minnesota will look to further shorten this number. While not quite to Wembanyama’s level, Rudy Gobert has four Defensive Player of the Year awards to his name and is an excellent deterrent in the paint.

Count on both these teams to bring their best defensive effort in the Game 2 matchup, and for the weight of the playoff moment to be shown on this side of the floor. Both teams had some stretches of success in their offensive process in Game 1, and the total still finished at just 206. Expect more of the same tonight and for the 216.5 game total to be too significant.

Best Bet: Game Total Under 216.5 (-108)