Sean Barnard details his top Donovan Mitchell player props on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3 matchup.
Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers dropped both matchups against the Knicks in New York and will need a better result as the action returns home tonight. Cleveland is 6-1 at home this postseason, and will need this home court advantage to pay dividends as they look to avoid the 3-0 series hole.
The Cavaliers enter as narrow 2.5-point favorites and hold -135 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Knicks are +114 with the game total set at 215.5.
Let’s dive into my favorite Donovan Mitchell player props for the Game 3 contest.
It has not been an ideal start to the series for Donovan Mitchell. Through the opening two games, the seven-time All-Star is averaging 27.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 3.0 steals per game. He was limited to just one assist in Game 2, marking just the second time this postseason Mitchell has been held to this few.
While playmaking is not Mitchell’s best quality, he is more than capable and will need to scale up in this area tonight. Mitchell averaged 5.7 assists and tallied over 4.5 assists in 50 of 70 regular season. games. Since the playoffs kicked off, the two-time All-NBA guard’s playmaking numbers slipped to 3.1 assists per game. Mitchell has only tallied over 4.5 assists in two of the 16 games.
The process of reaching these assists has not been as concerning as the raw numbers. Mitchell is averaging 7.7 potential assists per game across the postseason overall. James Harden is the clear factor for why Mitchell’s assist production has slipped as the season progressed. Harden’s ball-dominant nature comes with its pros and cons, but he has struggled in this series. Through the opening two games, Harden is averaging 16.5 points, 2.5 assists, and 3.0 turnovers. The turnovers have been an issue stemming back to the previous series, where the former MVP tallied 6+ turnovers in three games.
Outside of Harden, it has simply been the Cavaliers missing shots. In Game 2, Dean Wade, Max Strus, Sam Merrill, and Jaylon Tyson shot a combined 4-for-22 from the field and 2-for-17 from three. Role players tend to play better at home, so expect a better outing tonight.
Mitchell shot 36.4% from beyond the three-point arc while launching 8.8 per game in the regular season. He averaged 3.2 made three-pointers, despite his worst efficiency since the 2021-22 season. The 29-year-old connected with over 3.5 made three-pointers in 29 regular-season games. Since the playoffs kicked off, Mitchell has been shooting just 31.4% from deep on 8.6 attempts per game. He has made over 3.5 three-pointers in six playoff games, including Game 1 of this series in which he shot 4-for-11 from deep.
The biggest point of optimism here is the Knicks’ struggles to defend the three-point line. Across the regular season, New York ranked 22nd in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed and 20th in opponents’ three-point percentage. Across the postseason, the Knicks are allowing 36.2 three-point attempts per game, which is the most of all remaining playoff teams and the fourth-most of teams that qualified for the postseason.
Both Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns have some defensive shortcomings that the Cavaliers have not done a good enough job of exploiting thus far in the series. It is also worth noting that Mitchell shot 37.1% from deep at home this season compared to 35.5% on the road. In the postseason, he is shooting 36.8% from beyond the three-point arc at home and 27.5% when playing in away games.
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