On Saturday, after plenty of controversy, Hull City and Middlesbrough will play in what is known as the “richest game in football”. The winner of Saturday’s tie at Wembley Stadium will join Coventry City and Ipswich Town in promotion to the Premier League, earning millions of dollars in television revenue, while the loser will remain in England’s second tier for at least another season.

Promotion would be a long time coming for both teams. The Tigers last played in the Premier League in 2016-17, when they finished 18th in the top flight to end a decade-long run as a yo-yo club. Meanwhile, the Boro were a Premier League staple until 2008-09, but after suffering relegation that season, their only season in the top flight came in 2016-17.

The match will begin at 10:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. local), and if the teams cannot be separated in regular time, it will go to extra time and then penalties.

Middlesbrough is a -120 favorite to win the match in 90 minutes at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Hull City is +330. There are +265 odds that the teams will draw in regular time.

Hull City vs. Middlesbrough prediction, pick

The Boro’s status as the favorite reflects their much stronger season. Despite finishing just one place above the Tigers in the final table, Middlesbrough managed seven more points and had a goal difference 21 goals better. However, the Boro did most of their damage earlier in the season, and they ended with a run of three losses, five draws, and just two wins across the final 10 matches of the Championship season. They also lost 2-1 on aggregate to Southampton in the playoff semifinals, only to enter the championship match when the Saints were expelled for illegally spying on Middlesbrough’s practices. Hull had a similarly slow finish, picking up three wins, three losses, and four draws from its final 10 matches to sneak into the playoffs over Wrexham, but it came up clutch across two legs, pulling off an upset over third-place Millwall, on paper the far better team. Given the controversial nature of Southampton’s expulsion from these playoffs and the impact that it has had on both playoff sides, the match carries an even greater sense of drama, but it should be competitive nonetheless. Each team won at the other’s home ground during the regular season.

Despite their lower positioning in the table, the Tigers have plenty of talented players. Star striker Oli McBurnie has plenty of top-flight experience, appearing in 96 Premier League matches across five seasons and scoring 13 goals, as well as one season with La Liga side Las Palmas. He scored 17 times for Hull City during the regular season, and Joe Gelhardt has contributed 14 of his own, including one off the bench in the playoff semifinal. On paper, the Tigers had a merely decent attack, finishing with the seventh-most expected goals and the eighth-most shots on target in the division, but they were absolutely clinical as finishers, ranking third in goals minus expected goals. While they were the worst team in the league from set pieces, they scored the fifth-most goals from open play and scored the second-most fast-break goals. Hull City’s clinical nature in the attack allowed it to withstand its horrific defense, which ranked second-to-last in the Championship in expected goals and shots on target allowed and won aerial duels at the league’s third-lowest rate. To make up for their deficiencies, the Tigers will need to press effectively — they forced the second-most high turnovers ending in a goal — and Ivor Pandur will have to continue to be stellar in between the sticks. Hull led the Championship in defensive goals minus expected goals, allowing 15.68 fewer than expected. The Tigers did exactly that in the semifinals, controlling just 34% of possession against Millwall in the second leg but striking on the counter, and Pandur made four saves.

The Boro also have a young attack. Morgan Whittaker leads the team with 14 league goals, and Scotsman Tommy Conway has contributed 13. Additionally, three other Middlesbrough players reached the five-goal mark, including Dávid Strelec, who has previous top-flight experience with Serie A side Spezia and started up front for Slovakia throughout its World Cup Qualifying campaign. All in all, the Boro had a stronger attack than Hull City, amassing the fourth-most expected goals and the third-most shots on target, but they weren’t quite as clinical, ranking just 15th in goals minus expected goals. They were also the best and most aggressive passing team in the division, leading the league in pass accuracy and through balls. Middlesbrough has an even bigger advantage in the defense; it allowed the fewest expected goals and second-fewest shots on target while winning ground duels at the second-highest rate and aerial duels at a higher rate than the Tigers did. For the Boro, it’s all a matter of discipline; they gave up the third-most errors leading to a shot and conceded the most red cards, so while they were an excellent pressing team, they were also vulnerable to the press themselves.

Ultimately, Pandur’s clutch nature and Hull’s defensive bona fides could frustrate a relatively methodical Middlesbrough attack, and given that they’ve been merely average defensively against fast breaks, the Boro could easily be beaten on the counter, just as they were for the Tigers’ only goal in their Matchweek 24 win. Still, Hull allows too many easy shots, and it arguably got lucky that Middlesbrough managed to put only five of its 23 shots on target during that contest. The Boro don’t have the most clinical attack in the world, putting just three shots on target against Southampton, but they’ve been sharper than Millwall and are far less likely to commit bone-headed interceptions to start the counter. I’ll take them to find the back of the net at least once, and while it could go either way, I’ll lean slightly towards Middlesbrough to return to the Premier League.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score (-115)