2025 looked like a year of progress for the Boston Red Sox, as they made the playoffs for the first time since 2021. But then they started out 2-8, a record from which few teams have come back to make the postseason. They’re starting to turn it around, but the process is slow; after a consolation win over the Minnesota Twins last night, the Red Sox are now 7-11.

They’ll face a tough test this weekend in Boston, hosting a fellow playoff team in the Detroit Tigers for a four-game set. The opener will begin at 7:15 p.m. ET.

Casey Mize will take the mound for the Tigers, while the Red Sox will counter with Ranger Suárez, who joined in the offseason.

Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox prediction, preview

Perhaps no defeat underscored the shock of Boston’s disappointing season more than Monday’s against the Minnesota Twins, as Garrett Crochet — who finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting last season — was battered for nine hits and 10 earned runs in just 1.2 innings. All in all, the Red Sox rank fifth-to-last in ERA after having the fifth-best pitching staff in baseball last season, and their offense has fallen from the ninth-best to the eighth-worst. Meanwhile, Detroit went from 16th to eighth in ERA while maintaining the league’s 12th-best offense, and it’s currently on a six-game winning streak after sweeping the Kansas City Royals. Overall, the Tigers are only 10-9 because they, too, had a slow start to the season, but momentum is decidedly positive. Both teams have been led by major offensive additions; for Boston, free-agent signing Willson Contreras, and for Detroit, rookie Kevin McGonigle.

Mize has been more or less the same pitcher he was in 2025 — a pretty effective one. Last season, he finished with a 3.87 ERA and a 3.89 FIP, and so far this season, he’s at 3.94 and 3.67. He combines decent strikeout stuff with good control, ranking above the median in both strikeout and walk rate. Still, his advanced statistical profile isn’t quite flawless; he ranks in the bottom tertile in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and ground ball rate, which could serve the Red Sox well, given that they’ve pounded the ball into the ground all season. Plus, Mize has historically been worse than the median pitcher at generating chases and whiffs, and one of Boston’s main issues is its tendency to whiff. Still, he should have a chance of escaping damage if the Red Sox put the ball in play, given that he has an above-average defense behind him, and he’s gotten pretty unlucky that opponents have posted a .333 batting average on balls in play. His splitter has been one of the league’s best pitches this season, and he could use it to neutralize Contreras, who’s really struggled against offspeed stuff this season.

Suárez is off to a slow start this season, giving up four runs in 4.1 innings of work in his team debut and following that up with a four-inning, four-run effort on April 5. But he finally bounced back last Saturday, pitching six scoreless innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. Statcast doesn’t paint a positive picture of his production this season — he ranks in the fifth percentile in expected batting average and the 11th percentile in whiff percentage — but he finished in the league’s top quartile in seven different stats last season, and his pitch profile hasn’t changed that significantly. He’s long struggled to induce whiffs, which could be a problem against a team with excellent bat-to-ball skills, but the Red Sox have been the league’s best fielding team so far. He’s also never struck out many batters, but the Tigers rank near the top of the league in strikeouts in both 2025 and 2026. So far this season, they’ve also been much worse against lefties and worse on the road. As long as his performance regresses towards the mean, he’s a good fit against this Detroit offense.

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox pick, best bet

Best Bet: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-131)

Despite the rough start for Boston (and, especially, Suárez), the advanced numbers favor the Red Sox in this one. Suárez’s sample size of elite pitching last season is large, and recent Tigers teams have struggled to hit outside of Comerica Park. Mize’s tendency to serve up fly balls could be a problem at one of baseball’s more hitter-friendly parks.

Strong Lean: Ranger Suárez vs. Casey Mize – Most Strikeouts Thrown: Casey Mize (-131)

Neither of these pitchers has elite strikeout stuff, but Mize has historically been a little better than Suárez, and Detroit has better contact numbers than Boston does. The Red Sox’s defense should be able to generate outs on balls in play, so Suárez won’t need to rely on strikeouts as much as Mize will.