Brendan O’Sullivan dives into his pick and prediction for the Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays game on Monday, May 25.
The Marlins and Blue Jays play the first game of their three-game series on Monday, May 25.
Toronto is a -162 moneyline favorite, while Miami is +134 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Marlins vs. Blue Jays game.
This pitching matchup couldn’t be more lopsided. Trey Yesavage is facing Janson Junk to lead off the Blue Jays vs. Marlins series. Yesavage began his season on April 28, and he has only allowed three earned runs in 25.1 innings. Junk has allowed 20 earned runs in 22 innings in April alone. That’s almost a run per inning.
Luckily for Junk, the Blue Jays don’t have a terrifying offense. They rank 21st in runs per game despite reaching the World Series last year. Perhaps that will help the struggling right-hander. Perhaps it won’t matter, and he’ll implode again. Junk allowed eight earned runs across 5.0 innings in his last start and seven earned runs in 5.2 innings the start prior. He did have a nice three-game stretch to end April and begin May in which he allowed one earned run and nine hits through 16.1 innings.
The promising thing about Junk’s excellent three-game stretch was that it came against the Dodgers, Cardinals and Phillies. Furthermore, his last two outings were against the Braves and Rays. These are all quality offenses, so it’ll be interesting to see how the 30-year-old performs against Toronto.
There’s far more confidence in Yesavage, who looks like one of the best young starters in the majors. At just 22 years of age, the right-hander is in ace conversations for the Blue Jays. It’s a small sample size, but he’s continuing his excellence from last year’s regular season and playoffs.
Miami ranks 17th in runs per game, but it’s been relatively quiet on its three-game win streak. The Marlins swept the Mets with scores of 2-1, 4-1 and 4-0. These scores don’t provide much confidence in Miami performing well against Yesavage.
Which version of Junk are the Marlins getting in this game? You’ll get different answers based on who you ask. Some believe his three-game stretch was legit. Some believe that was a fluke.
History says the latter, and that’s where I stand, too. Junk has appeared in 46 games since 2021, bouncing between the Angels, Brewers, Athletics and Marlins. He has a career ERA of 4.92, though it is a small sample size.
Even with a weaker offense, I believe Toronto wins by at least 1.5 runs with Yesavage on the mound.
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