Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers.
It was all Brewers (42-25) on Friday, powered by star pitcher Jacob Misiorowski en route to a 6-0 victory. The visiting Phillies (37-32) will attempt to even this series up on Saturday at American Family Field. That’s easier said than done against one of the National League’s top squads. Which of these postseason contenders will come out on top tonight?
The Brewers are favorites (-175) over the Phillies, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Philadelphia and Milwaukee on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Few pitchers in baseball are more frustrating than Aaron Nola. After a disastrous 2025 campaign, the right-hander has continued to struggle this season. Through 66.0 innings of work, he’s accounted for a dismal 5.86 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 68 strikeouts (9.3 K/9). The former All-Star’s advanced metrics don’t inspire much confidence either. He sits within the 31st percentile or lower in xBA (.260), fastball velocity (91.8 MPH) and barrel rate (9.1%). A soft-tossing righty with erratic command? Taking Nola’s name out of the equation, his statistical decline shouldn’t come as a major surprise.
It doesn’t help that Philadelphia will take on one of the league’s deepest lineups. Despite a noticeable lack of power, the Brewers have scored the third-most runs in baseball (358). That’s due to a patient, disciplined approach at the plate. Milwaukee is fifth in batting average (.254) and second in on-base percentage (.340). In comparison, Nola is coughing up a whopping 10.1 hits per nine innings to opponents this season. To make matters worse, the Brew Crew is tied for the fifth-highest OPS against right-handed pitching (.753).
For the home team, it’ll be Shane Drohan on the bump this evening. Saturday marks his 14th appearance of the season (4th start). During that time, the southpaw has delivered a 3.11 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 37 strikeouts. Where the rookie has been at his best is limiting the long ball. He’s produced a minuscule 0.5 home runs per nine innings ratio so far. A quick scan of the 27-year-old’s Savant page is promising. Drohan ranks inside the 75th percentile in xERA (3.05), xBA (.220) and chase rate (33.2%). It’s a small sample size, but certainly promising for Milwaukee fans.
In years past, a date with the Phillies would strike fear into most hurlers. That hasn’t really been the case in 2026. Despite a lineup filled with big names, the Fightins have been feeble at the plate. They’ve scored 276 total runs this season, tied for the fourth-fewest in the big leagues. If there’s one thing this group does well, it’s hitting dingers. Philadelphia has slugged 86 home runs this season, ninth-most in baseball. However, as previously mentioned, Drohan usually keeps the ball inside the park. To boot, American Family Field is the fifth-friendliest venue for pitchers.
Nola is capable of delivering a quality start on Saturday. However, it’s just as likely he gets shelled by one of baseball’s best lineups. At this point, that’s not a risk worth taking for bettors. On the other side, Drohan’s early season success is backed up by advanced metrics. An inability to do anything other than hitting homers makes the Phillies a difficult group to back tonight.
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