Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Cardinals–Pirates at PNC Park puts a 14-13 St. Louis club against an 18-10 Pittsburgh team that’s been more stable at home, but the shape of this game isn’t cleanly one-sided. The Cardinals bring a lineup that has handled left-handed pitching well enough to stay in games, while Pittsburgh has been better at turning innings into runs rather than waiting on big swings. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dustin May enters 3-2 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over 24.2 innings, backed by a contact profile that explains the damage: 89.4 mph EV, 46.8% hard-hit rate, .394 wOBA allowed, .330 xwOBA, 39.2% sweet-spot rate. The early window is the problem—hitters are producing .337/.395/.520 first time through—which means Pittsburgh doesn’t need to wait for the bullpen to create scoring. On the other side, Mason Montgomery’s sample is smaller, but the traffic is loud: opponents at .282 AVG and a .526 OBP, which aligns with a Cardinals offense that sits around .247–.271 AVG and .750 OPS vs LHP. Team-wide, Pittsburgh is at 4.82 runs/game, .243/.319/.400/.719 vs RHP, while St. Louis is at 4.63 runs/game with stronger split efficiency against lefties.
The Pirates’ hitter layer has actual substance against right-handed pitching. Ryan O’Hearn is the cleanest bat at .325/.413/.519/.932 overall and .317/.429/.508/.937 vs RHP, with four HR, 16 RBI, 12 walks, 15 strikeouts, and six extra-base hits in the split. Oneil Cruz brings the ceiling at .286/.352/.551/.903 with seven HR, 22 RBI, five doubles, 10 steals, and team-best power production. Nick Gonzales has been a real contact lane vs righties at .339 AVG, while Spencer Horwitz gives them another left-handed on-base piece behind the main damage. Jake Mangum adds speed/traffic at .294/.357/.333, and Konnor Griffin just went 5-for-10 in the Milwaukee series with his first MLB homer and first three-hit game. Pittsburgh’s team split is average, but .243/.337/.381/.719 vs RHP with 79 walks is playable against May’s .395 OBP allowed first time through and 46.8% hard-hit rate.
St. Louis’ lineup shape is why the bet starts to point to a Pittsburgh’s team total instead of a side. JJ Wetherholt has real impact contact already, with Statcast showing 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 50.0% hard-hit rate, .398 wOBA, .569 xwOBA, and 50.0% barrel rate, and he homered in the recent Seattle loss. Nathan Church also homered in that game, while Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Nolan Arenado give the Cardinals enough contact, patience, and left/right balance to stress a bullpen-game look. St. Louis’ offense has been around 4.63 runs per game with a roughly .750 OPS vs LHP, so there is a credible run path against Mason Montgomery. That’s the core distinction: St. Louis can score, but the Cardinals’ pitching side still gives Pittsburgh the cleaner plus-money scoring lane.
The separation comes in the middle and late innings. St. Louis’ bullpen has not held leads, sitting at a 5.33 ERA, 1.486 WHIP, six blown saves, and a 60% save rate, and just allowed a late collapse where Matt Svanson gave up the tying run and JoJo Romero allowed the game-winning homer. Over the last week, the bullpen has logged 19.0 innings with a 4.74 ERA, showing continued leakage. Pittsburgh doesn’t need all its damage early—it can stack two runs off May, add another in the middle, and finish with late scoring against a bridge that hasn’t protected games. The Cardinals’ one clean arm, Riley O’Brien (33% K rate, 0.00 ERA, 0 BB in 13.1 IP), is not enough to suppress scoring for multiple innings.
That creates a layered script. Pittsburgh has early access through May’s .337/.395/.520 first-cycle split, sustained pressure through OBP and contact, and a late add-on path against a bullpen that has already shown cracks. St. Louis can score, but the Pirates don’t need to stop them—they just need to get to five across nine innings.
Best bet: Pirates team total over 4.5 (+114). The way it dies is May suppressing early traffic enough to shorten the game and the Cardinals’ bullpen bridging cleanly into O’Brien, but the combination of first-cycle damage, OBP depth, and late-inning volatility still points to Pittsburgh reaching five.
Projected score: Pirates 6, Cardinals 4.
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