The Yankees snapped a four-game losing streak on Tuesday with a 6-2 win over the Orioles. Now, on Wednesday afternoon, they’ll look to take the series. Baltimore will do the same, with hopes of improving its record versus New York to 2-5 on the season, and getting some revenge for a four-game sweep back in the Bronx to begin May.

Who will emerge victorious in the rubber match? Let’s preview this divisional tilt and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Yankees vs. Orioles prediction, preview

Now in the second year of a $218 million contract, Max Fried has been as good as ever through the first seven weeks of the season. Across nine starts and 58.2 innings of work, the left-hander has managed a 2.91 ERA and a 2.41 xERA — with the latter representing the lowest qualified mark in the American League. Has Fried’s campaign been conventionally incredible? Not necessarily. In fact, the LHP’s 21.1% strikeout rate is a career-low, as is his 13.2% K/BB ratio. Yet at the same time, Fried’s been able to withstand a few extra batted ball events due to his elite ability to induce weak contact. Opponents are managing a microscopic 1.9% barrel rate against Fried, along with just a 30.8% hard hit rate. So, while a .234 opponent BABIP or a 1.8% HR/FB ratio seem like obvious places for regression, they’re actually features of Fried’s immense skill.

With all that said, it is probably worth pointing out that the Orioles got to Fried a little bit back on May 3, with the left-hander giving up three earned runs in 5.1 innings of work. Fried also conceded season-highs in hits (6) and walks (3) in that contest. It’s an odd data point in what’s been a sterling run for the southpaw, and an equally underwhelming stretch for Baltimore’s bats. Over the past 14 days, the Orioles rank dead-last in the AL in both batting average (.204) and expected wOBA (.287). The team’s 80 wRC+ in this span of time ranks 27th in all of baseball. So, while the advantage in a pitcher seeing an opposing lineup for the second time in a couple of weeks usually lies with the offense, I’d be shocked if Baltimore was able to rattle Fried in back-to-back outings. Not with the club’s current struggles.

You know who isn’t struggling? The Yankees’ bats. New York leads the AL in ISO (.202) and wRC+ (124) over that same two-week span, as the likes of Aaron Judge and Ben Rice just can’t seem to stop hitting home runs. The Orioles will try and slow the Bronx Bombers down by sending “ace” Kyle Bradish to the mound, yet the right-hander hasn’t exactly had the start to 2026 that many were expecting, especially after returning from injury and finishing 2025 so strongly. In 41.0 innings, Bradish has been plagued by an 11.9% walk rate and an inflated .366 BABIP. Hence the 29-year-old’s 4.83 ERA. Now, Bradish is directly on the heels of his best appearance of the season, striking out 10 and walking only one in seven innings against the Athletics. However, the start before that, the RHP surrendered a season-high five earned runs in a loss to these same Yankees. It’s difficult to know which version of Bradish will show up this afternoon.

Yankees vs. Orioles pick, best bet

Best Bet: Under 8.5 (+100)

Both games in this series have already gone under this number, and I expect the pattern to continue on Wednesday. Fried owns the best xERA in the American League (2.41) and Bradish has an ERA well below 3.00 since the start of 2023. Add in the Orioles’ recent run production woes, and this seems like an easy choice.