Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Monday’s FIFA World Cup match between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay.
For most countries, the World Cup is just about the product on the field, but Mexico, Canada, and the United States, the tournament hosts, face the pressure of both thriving on the pitch and creating a good atmosphere off of it. Uruguay will experience that added pressure in 2030, when it hosts one of the opening matches in celebration of the tournament’s centenary, and Saudi Arabia will handle the tournament alone in 2034.
The tournament’s next two hosts will face off on Monday at 6 p.m. ET in Atlanta in the second match of Group H action.
La Celeste are -225 favorites to take the pivotal three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Green Falcons are +700. A draw is available at +350.
Below, I’ll break down the crucial match and provide my favorite bet.
Saudi Arabia was among the most battle-tested teams in Asian qualifying, as it had to play second, third, and fourth round groups just to make it to the World Cup. The Green Falcons’ results were a mixed bag; they never beat either Japan or Australia and only took one of three games against Indonesia, but they did manage to pick up one win and one defeat against eventual qualifiers Jordan and recently drew African giants Senegal in a friendly. Uruguay didn’t have the most convincing qualifying campaign, either; it ended with just three wins in its final 12 matches, and it failed to beat either Paraguay or Ecuador. La Celeste also didn’t play friendlies in June, but some of their results, such as a 5-1 friendly loss to the United States last November, weren’t all that encouraging.
Throughout its qualifying campaign, Saudi Arabia was led by Firas Al-Buraikan, who scored five goals in 34 appearances this season while playing alongside Ivan Toney and Franck Kessié for Al-Ahli. Additionally, Saleh Al-Shehri contributed four goals and youngster Musab Al Juwayr three, and Al Juwayr also finished as the fourth-top assister in the Saudi Pro League. In general, though, the Green Falcons’ attack is a relative weakness, as they scored just the 12th-most goals per 90 minutes throughout Asian qualifying, the worst mark among teams to ultimately make the tournament, and they ranked second-to-last among all third round teams in goals per shot on target. However, they made up for it with a strong defense, as they allowed the seventh-fewest goals and fourth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes while recording the most tackles. Hassan Al Tambakti was a regular starter for Al-Hilal, Saud Abdulhamid was a regular contributor for Lens, which nearly toppled Paris Saint-Germain from its perch atop Ligue 1, and goalie Nawaf Al Aqidi helped Al-Nassr win the Pro League. Saudi Arabia wasn’t particularly disciplined, picking up the second-most yellow cards per 90 minutes among teams to qualify, but it made up for it by drawing the third-most yellows.
On paper, though, Uruguay will have at least the four best players on the pitch. Real Madrid star Federico Valverde, who can play anywhere in the right side of the defense, is arguably the most versatile player in the world, and Manuel Ugarte was a valuable squad player for Premier League standouts Manchester United. Additionally, Darwin Núñez had a solid season for Al-Hilal, and Maxi Araújo had some timely goals for Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League. Still, La Celeste’s attack wasn’t good enough for South American standards, as it ranked third-to-last in shots on target per 90 minutes. Instead, Marcelo Bielsa’s men won through their defense; they allowed the fifth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes, the third-fewest goals per shot on target, and the fourth-fewest goals overall. Ronald Araújo is still generally well-regarded despite a rough season for Barcelona, and Sergio Rochet is a veteran shot-stopper who helped shepherd Uruguay to a third-place finish at the 2024 Copa América in the United States. Like the Green Falcons, La Celeste were relatively indisciplined, but they drew more yellows than any team besides Argentina, and they recorded the second-most tackles while being dispossessed the fewest times.
It wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if Saudi Arabia managed to intercept a sloppy Uruguay pass and fire it past Rochet on the counter, given that La Celeste were intercepted more than any other team in South America and were poor at playing the offsides trap that the Green Falcons were often susceptible to. However, 90 minutes is long, and the talent differential is massive. Even if it might not attempt many shots, Uruguay’s clinical finishing should allow it to put at least one past Al Aqidi, especially given Valverde’s prowess from set pieces and Saudi Arabia’s physical style. 2-0 or 2-1 for La Celeste sounds about right.
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