The Canadiens are up 2-1 in the series and will host the Lightning on Sunday night in Game 4 of the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, with first puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is a slight -115 road favorite on the Moneyline, and the game’s total is set at O/U 5.5 goals.

Below, I’ll provide a Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 4 prediction and pick.

Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 4 prediction, preview

What a series this has been, with all three games requiring overtime thus far. The Bell Centre crowd in Game 3 was electric, and it should get the Canadiens buzzing to potentially take a 3-1 series lead before the series heads back to Tampa Bay for Game 5. Montreal has seemed to finally figure out Tampa Bay, going 4-0-1 across the last five meetings. The Habs have also won each of their last seven games as home underdogs, and given the nature of the first three games, a strong home crowd will help in overtime situations. Another trend: the Canadiens have covered the Puck Line in each of their last 28 games as underdogs.

These two teams have been very similar in terms of metrics thus far, with the Habs and Lightning going 4-for-13 and 3-for-13 on the power play, respectively. Both teams have averaged 2.12 5v5 goals per 60 and 2.12 5v5 goals against per 60 this postseason. I’m not sure there could’ve been a more balanced series than this one, and it’s a shame it’s a first-round matchup. Additionally, these clubs are playing it safe and not allowing many high-danger chances, with just a combined five at 5v5 across three games. This goes to show how average both Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jakub Dobes have been, as they rank 11th and 13th in goals saved above expected among postseason goaltenders.

Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 4 pick, best bet

Best Bet: MTL Canadiens Moneyline (-105)

It’s rather difficult to pick who wins this game straight up, given how balanced the metrics are. So, we’re backing the home team with insane hockey-loving fans to get the job done. Montreal has won each of its last seven games as home underdogs.

Strong Lean: UNDER 5.5 Total Goals (+110)

The under has cashed in back-to-back games. Each of the Canadiens’ last five games after coming off overtime has gone under.