“The greatest match in football history” is a superlative that doesn’t get thrown around lightly, but last Tuesday’s semifinal first leg between Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Münich certainly has a case. Across a scintillating 90 minutes of football at the Parc des Princes, PSG and Bayern combined for nine goals on 22 shots, a clinical display of finishing. Seven different players found the back of the net, with Ousmane Dembélé and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia each scoring twice and João Neves, Harry Kane, Luis Díaz, Michael Olise, and Dayot Upamecano all netting once. It was tied for the fifth-highest scoring Champions League game of all time.

Although Les Parisiens emerged as 5-4 winners last Tuesday, there’s still a lot to play for in the return leg at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local). A one-goal deficit isn’t too difficult to overturn, especially since Die Roten will be the home side, and it’s very conceivable that either team could end up facing Arsenal in the May 30 final in Budapest.

Given how high-powered each team’s attack is, it’s likely that there will be plenty of goals, though perhaps expecting nine again would be a bridge too far. The over-under is set to 4.5.

Bayern is a -160 favorite to win the return leg on DraftKings Sportsbook (-110 to advance to the final), and Paris is +320 (-110 to advance). There are +425 odds that the match will end in a draw, sending Les Parisiens through to their second consecutive title match.

Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain Anytime Goalscorer Pick

The goalscorer market is consistent with Die Roten’s status as a moderate favorite. Each of the four players with the shortest odds to score — Kane (-150), Nicolas Jackson (+115), Díaz (+135), and Olise (+150) — all wear Bayern kits. However, the odds also reflect Paris’ strong attack, as the next five players all play for Les Parisiens, with Dembélé (+165), Gonçalo Ramos (+180), and Kvaratskhelia (+190) all having better than a one-in-three chance of scoring. PSG’s duo of Bradley Barcola (+210) and Desiré Doué (+210) both have better than a one-in-four chance, as do Die Roten’s Jamal Musiala (+225) and Lennart Karl (+225).

Despite losing in the French capital, Bayern should be in position to keep the tie competitive, given how strong it has been at home. Die Roten have lost at the Allianz Arena just once all season, when they fell 2-1 to Augsburg in the Bundesliga with first-choice goalkeeper Manuel Neuer sidelined and regular starter Musiala entering only as a substitute. They’ve also allowed more than two goals just twice at home in any competition, though, to be fair, those have both come in their last three games at the venue, including a 4-3 thriller against Real Madrid in the quarterfinals. Plus, Die Roten’s attack has been dominant at home, scoring at least three goals in all but one match. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of Bayern’s stars score, especially since it produced more expected goals than Les Parisiens in the first leg. All in all, Die Roten have had the slightly more prolific attack in all phases, attempting more shots, generating more expected goals, taking more touches in the box, and being more clinical from free kicks and headers. In the first leg, they completed a higher percentage of their passes into the final third and got their shots on target at a higher rate.

All in all, Paris’ defense is slightly better, even with right-back Achraf Hakimi sidelined with a muscular injury. The difference isn’t massive — Les Parisiens have allowed 0.03 fewer expected goals and 0.06 fewer goals per match than Bayern has — but given their dominance against the set pieces that Die Roten thrive on and their superior aerial duel win rate, they’re slightly more suited to keep the Bavarians at bay than vice versa. Bayern has also been vulnerable against fast-breaks, and PSG has been among the most clinical in such situations. Plus, Matvei Safonov has also been been slightly more effective in the Champions League than Manuel Neuer has, posting a save percentage roughly six percentage points higher. PSG has sufficient depth to cover for Hakimi, as Warren Zaïre-Emery is more than capable of filling in at right back. It’s not a guarantee that Les Parisiens will slow down Die Roten’s clinical attack at all or that they’ll ultimately win the tie, but their chances of stopping Bayern aren’t much lower than Die Roten’s odds of stopping Paris, at least not as much as the odds would suggest. Both teams could reasonably be expected to score multiple goals, making Les Parisiens players better bets.

Any of PSG’s front three would represent good value at long odds. Dembélé has netted in three of his last six games, and he consistently shows up in big matches, scoring both of Les Parisiens’ goals in the second leg of the quarterfinal against Liverpool. Vitinha and Doué have both netted recently in Champions League matches, and Vitinha (+600) actually ranks second on the team in Champions League goals. However, the best bet is Kvaratskhelia, who’s scored in five of his last six matches and has either scored or assisted in each of PSG’s last UCL contests. He leads the team with 10 goals in the competition, sitting third in the Golden Boot race behind only Kylian Mbappé (15) and Kane (13).

Best Bet: Khivcha Kvaratskhelia Anytime Goalscorer (+190)