NL East rivals will hope to turn things around this weekend in South Beach. The Mets (22-28) have fallen well short of preseason expectations. A brutal mix of injuries and underperformance has mired New York in mediocrity. It’s a similar story for the Marlins (22-29), who haven’t kept up the momentum following a solid second half in 2025. Miami needs more from talented players such as Eury Perez, Friday’s starter. Can the Fish take care of business at home against their divisional foes?

The Marlins are favorites (-114) over the Mets, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between New York and Miami on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mets vs. Marlins prediction, preview

An already beleaguered Mets squad suffered yet another blow last weekend. Clay Holmes, arguably the team’s best starter this season, broke his fibula mid-game against the Yankees. Now without a standout pitcher, New York will turn to Tobias Myers on Friday. As far as replacements go, the former Brewers hurler isn’t a bad option. During his rookie season in 2024, the right-hander delivered a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 138.0 innings (25 starts). Myers doesn’t pitch deep into games very often, but he’s a good bet to log at least four innings tonight.

To the casual observer, a date to Miami shouldn’t pose much of a problem for most opposing pitchers. However, this is one of the more underrated offenses in all of baseball. This season, the Marlins rank 13th in runs scored (221) and tenth in batting average (.244). In addition, they lead the majors with 60 stolen bases. It’s worth noting that Myers doesn’t generate many whiffs (7.1 K/9). If the Fish can make contact and generate traffic on the base paths, things could get interesting.

In a sport filled with enigmatic starting pitchers, Eury Perez stands out. Lauded during the winter as a 2026 breakout candidate, it’s been anything but for the Dominican this season. Through 52.1 innings of work, he’s on the hook for a miserable 5.33 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 58 strikeouts (10.0 K/9). A look under the hood doesn’t give Marlins fans much reason for optimism. Perez has a 5.08 xERA, 12.2 BB% and 14.3% barrel rate; those marks rank inside the bottom 20th percentile among qualified pitchers. The 23-year-old has never possessed exceptional command, but he’s been all over the place this season. Eury is tied with Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish for an MLB-worst 4.82 walks per nine innings.

If there’s hope for Perez, tonight’s opponent has plenty of issues as well. The Mets are averaging 4.08 runs per game, eighth-worst in the National League. Granted, there have been signs of life over the past week. New York has scored 35 runs over its last five games, second-most in baseball during that stretch. It’s difficult to determine how much of that was due to a miserable Nationals pitching staff, though. Regardless, this is a spot that has been kind to the Amazin’s in the past. Perez has coughed up ten earned runs over 9.0 career innings vs. New York (10.00 ERA).

Mets vs. Marlins pick, best bet

Despite dropping their series against Washington, the Mets got a much-needed jolt on offense. They’re set up nicely tonight against a pitcher that has looked awful for most of the season. Despite Perez’s name value, I’d rather trust Myers on the mound right now. As underdogs, I’ll ride with New York in this battle between struggling clubs.

Best Bet: Mets ML (-105)