AEW Double or Nothing 2026 has the potential to be one of the company’s strongest pay-per-views of the year, with multiple championship matches, Owen Hart Cup Tournament bouts, and several matches that could easily steal the show. From Darby Allin defending the AEW World Championship against MJF to Kazuchika Okada facing Konosuke Takeshita and Will Ospreay battling Samoa Joe, this card is loaded from top to bottom.
Below are my full predictions and analysis for every match at AEW Double or Nothing 2026, including quick picks for the entire card followed by a deeper breakdown of each matchup.
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Full match-by-match predictions, picks, and potential winners for the full AEW Double or Nothing 2026 card, including Darby Allin vs. MJF for the AEW World Championship, Kazuchika Okada vs. Konosuke Takeshita, Jon Moxley vs. Kyle O’Reilly, and the Owen Hart Cup tournament matches.
Check out the quick picks below, followed by full analysis for every match on the card.
| Match | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Darby Allin (c) vs. MJF — AEW World Championship, Title vs. Hair | MJF |
| Thekla (c) vs. Hikaru Shida vs. Jamie Hayter vs. Kris Statlander — AEW Women’s World Championship Four-Way | Thekla |
| Kazuchika Okada (c) vs. Konosuke Takeshita — AEW International Championship | Konosuke Takeshita |
| Jon Moxley (c) vs. Kyle O’Reilly — AEW Continental Championship | Jon Moxley |
| FTR (c) vs. Cage & Cope — AEW Tag Team Championship, I Quit Street Fight | Cage & Cope |
| Team Jericho/Elite/Hurt Syndicate vs. The Demand/Callis Family/Dogs — 14-Man Stadium Stampede | Team Jericho/Elite/Hurt Syndicate |
| Will Ospreay vs. Samoa Joe — Owen Hart Men’s Cup Quarterfinal | Will Ospreay |
| Swerve Strickland vs. Bandido — Owen Hart Men’s Cup Quarterfinal | Swerve Strickland |
| Mina Shirakawa vs. Athena — Owen Hart Women’s Cup Quarterfinal | Athena |
Here are my full predictions for every major match at AEW Double or Nothing 2026.
When Darby Allin defeated MJF in quick fashion for the AEW World Championship, I was excited to see where this would go. There was plenty of skepticism about whether Allin was truly world championship material and if it was too soon to dethrone MJF. Since then, Allin has silenced a lot of those doubts with a fantastic title run. Since April 15, we’ve gotten 1 hour, 53 minutes, and 54 seconds of Darby Allin title defenses in some truly phenomenal matches, all on free TV. However, that’s exactly why we’re about to see the AEW World Championship go back to MJF.
MJF becoming a three-time AEW World Champion feels increasingly likely heading into Double or Nothing. We recently took a deeper look at whether MJF will regain the AEW World Championship at the event.
An important detail emerged during Allin’s defense against Sammy Guevara. While Allin had Guevara in the Scorpion Death Lock, Allin seemingly passed out and inadvertently released the hold. The toll of being a fighting champion and defending the belt every week is catching up to him. In his match against Mike Bailey, Allin once again looked fatigued at times.
It’s almost poetic that Allin defeated MJF in 2:14 the night after MJF went more than 38 minutes with Kenny Omega at AEW Dynasty. Allin was fresh and seized the opportunity against a worn-down champion. Now the roles are reversed. After weeks of grueling title defenses, Allin looks exhausted physically and mentally, while MJF has patiently waited for the perfect moment to strike. That moment comes at Double or Nothing.
Darby Allin vs. MJF Prediction: MJF defeats Darby Allin for the AEW World Championship
I’m always nervous about multi-wrestler title matches because they’re the easiest way to get the championship off a wrestler without them being pinned or submitted. However, I don’t think AEW is ready to take the title off Thekla yet.
Thekla has scored individual victories against both Jamie Hayter and, of course, Kris Statlander, from whom she won the AEW Women’s World Championship. Thekla beat Statlander for the title in a strap match on Dynamite and then won a best two out of three falls match at Revolution in their rematch. She also recently beat Hayter at Dynasty. Hikaru Shida is also the only challenger in this match that Thekla hasn’t already beaten. I would be shocked if Shida stole the victory here, as she’s mainly been involved in tag matches with Statlander since her return.
Some timely interference from the Triangle of Madness feels like the most likely outcome here and should help Thekla retain the AEW Women’s World Championship.
Thekla vs. Hikaru Shida vs. Jamie Hayter vs. Kris Statlander Prediction: Thekla retains the AEW Women’s World Championship
The fact that this match isn’t the main event speaks to just how deep the AEW roster is right now. Okada vs. Takeshita is a massive match that has been building for months, and Double or Nothing finally gives AEW the stage to deliver on it. Between the stakes, the history and the talent involved, this has all the makings of a match-of-the-night contender.
Of course, this isn’t the first time these two have faced off one-on-one. They previously met in the 2025 Continental Classic semifinal at Worlds End, where Okada picked up the victory before ultimately losing to Jon Moxley in the finals. The stakes are even higher this time around with the AEW International Championship on the line, a title Okada has held since All In Texas.
I believe we’re about to see Takeshita begin his second reign as AEW International Champion after first winning the title at WrestleDream 2024 against Ricochet and Will Ospreay. Oddly enough, it feels like Takeshita has already accomplished far more in AEW than he actually has because of his success outside the company. However, this feels like the moment AEW fully establishes him as one of the company’s top stars. Defeating “The Rainmaker” at Double or Nothing would do exactly that.
Kazuchika Okada vs. Konosuke Takeshita Prediction: Konosuke Takeshita wins the AEW International Championship
Kyle O’Reilly has quietly become Jon Moxley’s kryptonite over the past year. While Moxley defeated O’Reilly in an AEW World Championship No. 1 contender’s match back in 2022, these two didn’t meet again in singles competition until 2025. Since then, getting a definitive winner between them has been nearly impossible. After O’Reilly picked up a disqualification victory on Dynamite, the two later fought to a double countout and, most recently, a time-limit draw that ultimately led to this championship match. The only clean finish between them during this stretch came at Full Gear 2025, when O’Reilly submitted Moxley in a No Holds Barred match.
Now Moxley has to defend the AEW Continental Championship against the one opponent he seemingly can’t put away. While Moxley hasn’t defended the title often in 2026, his victories over Konosuke Takeshita and Will Ospreay prove just how dangerous he still is as champion. O’Reilly winning would mark his first singles championship in AEW, but that’s where the doubt creeps in. Despite consistently being in the mix, O’Reilly is currently 0-5 in AEW singles title matches. Eventually, Moxley has to put this rivalry to rest, and Double or Nothing feels like the moment he finally does it.
Jon Moxley vs. Kyle O’Reilly Prediction: Jon Moxley retains the AEW Continental Championship
When these two teams met at AEW Dynasty, I was convinced Cage & Cope were walking out with the AEW Tag Team Championship. Instead, FTR retained, which ultimately made this rematch even bigger now that an I Quit stipulation has been added. The added wrinkle that Cage & Cope must retire from active competition if they lose only raises the stakes even further.
It’s hard to imagine Cage & Cope ending this final run together without ever capturing the AEW Tag Team Championship. While both men have held singles gold in AEW and even defeated one another for the TNT Championship, they’ve never won tag team gold together in the company. Considering their history as one of wrestling’s greatest tag teams, Double or Nothing feels like the perfect moment to finally change that.
I expect this match to be absolutely brutal. Cope and Christian have continued proving they can still perform at an elite level, while FTR consistently delivers in high-stakes tag matches. With the series currently tied at one win apiece, this feels like the moment Cage & Cope finally go up 2-1 and capture their first tag team championship together since 2001.
FTR vs. Cage & Cope Prediction: Cage & Cope win the AEW Tag Team Championship
Honestly, just get ready for absolute chaos. Stadium Stampede matches are always ridiculous in the best possible way, and with the amount of talent involved here, this could easily end up being one of the most entertaining matches on the entire card.
Team Jericho/Elite/Hurt Syndicate vs. The Demand/Callis Family/Dogs Prediction: Jericho/Elite/Hurt Syndicate
AEW’s roster depth continues to shine with a match like this buried deeper on the Double or Nothing card. While this may not receive the biggest buildup heading into the show, it has all the ingredients to steal it. Since aligning himself more closely with The Death Riders, Ospreay has looked noticeably more aggressive inside the ring, rebounding from an uneven return with victories over Ace Austin and Katsuyori Shibata.
Ospreay appears completely focused on finally capturing the AEW World Championship, and winning the Owen Hart Cup feels like the clearest path toward getting there after coming up short in the tournament last year. This will also mark the first singles meeting between Ospreay and Samoa Joe, which should make for an incredible clash of styles. However, with Ospreay’s current momentum and newfound edge, it’s hard to see him losing this early in the tournament. I’ll even go one step further and predict Ospreay wins by submission using his new “Death Ground” armbar.
Will Ospreay vs. Samoa Joe Prediction: Will Ospreay
Bandido continues to be one of the most consistently entertaining wrestlers in AEW, but this feels like a situation where Swerve Strickland’s bigger-picture momentum is simply too much to overcome. Ever since losing the AEW World Championship, Swerve has still been presented as one of the company’s top stars, and a deep run in the Owen Hart Cup Tournament feels like the natural next step for him heading into the summer.
That’s not to say Bandido won’t push Swerve to the limit. In fact, this has the potential to be one of the more underrated matches on the entire Double or Nothing card because of how well their styles should mesh together. However, with Swerve seemingly circling back toward the AEW World Championship picture, it would be surprising to see him eliminated this early in the tournament.
Swerve Strickland vs. Bandido Prediction: Swerve Strickland
Athena has built herself into one of the most dominant wrestlers anywhere in professional wrestling, and it’s difficult to picture her being eliminated this early in the Owen Hart Cup Tournament. While Mina Shirakawa continues to gain momentum and has become increasingly popular with AEW fans, this feels like a matchup designed to further establish Athena as one of the favorites to win the entire tournament.
Mina Shirakawa vs. Athena Prediction: Athena
AEW Double or Nothing 2026 feels like one of the strongest cards the company has put together in quite some time. From major championship matches to the Owen Hart Cup Tournament bouts, there are several matches here that could realistically steal the show. Kazuchika Okada vs. Konosuke Takeshita and Will Ospreay vs. Samoa Joe especially stand out as potential match-of-the-night contenders.
At the same time, this event also feels like a turning point for several major AEW storylines. I expect Konosuke Takeshita to fully establish himself as one of AEW’s top stars with a victory over Okada, while MJF reclaiming the AEW World Championship from Darby Allin would bring Allin’s incredible title run full circle. Between the in-ring talent involved and the stakes attached to several matches, Double or Nothing has all the ingredients to be one of AEW’s best pay-per-views of the year.
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