Griffin Wong gives his best bet, pick and prediction for Friday’s FIFA World Cup match between Norway and France.
There have been plenty of surprises at this World Cup so far, but it’s only fitting that the “Group of Death” will come down to a winner-take all match. France looks like the inner-circle contender it was widely expected to be, and Norway’s strong form from the qualifiers has carried over into the tournament.
Both teams have already secured advancement, but the winner of Friday’s 3 p.m. ET match in Boston between them will claim the group and a date with a third-place team, and the loser will have a relatively tricky matchup against the Ivory Coast. If the teams draw, Les Bleus will claim the group thanks to their superior goal difference.
France is a -160 favorite to take all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Red, White, and Blue are +400. There are +340 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down this Group I decider and provide my favorite bet.
One sloppy half against the African champions aside, Les Bleus have looked dangerous, as their lethal attack produced magic out of thin air in the second half against Senegal, and even a rain delay couldn’t slow them down in their throttling of Iraq. Virtually all of the other pre-tournament contenders have had some slip-ups, as Spain, England, Brazil, and the Netherlands all drew one of their opening matches, so France’s dominance has sent a strong message to every other team in the field. Meanwhile, Norway has looked equally unstoppable, as its result against Iraq was never in doubt and it withstood a late challenge from the Lions of Teranga to dispatch them. The Red, White, and Blue were widely tapped as a dark horse pick before the tournament began, and they’ve lived up to their billing so far.
Ultimately, Norway’s chances of pulling off the upset will hinge heavily on the left foot of Erling Haaland. Haaland has netted 112 goals across 132 Premier League matches for Manchester City and 59 in 52 matches for the Red, White, and Blue, including 16 in eight matches in qualifying and four so far this World Cup. While he’s the headliner, Norway also has some other talented attackers, as Martin Ødegaard, Alexander Sørloth, and Antonio Nusa at least take some defensive attention away from Haaland. All in all, Ståle Solbakken’s men have produced the fourth-most expected goals per match and the most expected goals per shot while getting nearly half of their shots on target, and they’ve been particularly clinical from their crosses and fast breaks. However, the Red, White, and Blue’s defense has been a mixed bag, as though it’s gotten fortunate that opponents have only put 18.5% of their shots on target and has the lowest ground-duel win rate, it has consistently won its aerial duels. The fact that goalkeeper Ørjan Nyland has only saved two of the five shots on target he’s faced could be a problem, but if Norway can play clean and avoid giving Les Bleus easy looks, it might be able to get away with it.
Arguably the only striker more dangerous than Haaland plays for France. Kylian Mbappé is already tied for second in the all-time scoring leaderboard, two goals behind Lionel Messi (who also leads this tournament’s Ballon d’Or race), and he, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, and Desiré Doué make up a terrifying front four. To be fair, Les Bleus have actually produced fewer expected goals per match than the Red, White, and Blue, but they’ve been more clinical in other ways, completing passes at higher rates, playing extremely aggressively by launching the second-most through balls, and managing more touches in the box. Additionally, France is by far the more well-rounded side, as it’s allowed the second-fewest shots and ninth-fewest expected goals per match, and it’s one of just 10 teams to win at least 50% of both its ground and aerial duels. Les Bleus’ high press has also produced the second-most high turnovers ending in a shot, and they’ve done an excellent job playing cleanly, committing the fifth-fewest fouls. Mike Maignan and Theo Hernández arguably could’ve done better on the one goal that France has allowed, but it was mostly just the result of an unstoppable shot by Senegal wunderkind Ibrahim Mbaye.
Despite Norway’s strong performances so far, this match seems unlikely to be overly competitive. The Red, White, and Blue’s inability to win ground duels will be a problem against the likes of Doué, Olise, Dembélé, and Mbappé, all of whom have exceptional ball control. Additionally, Nyland’s mediocre goalkeeping was able to keep Iraq out, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to do much against Les Bleus’ clinical front four. I wouldn’t bank on a clean sheet, as Haaland is simply too talented to be left off the score sheet, but it’s worth noting that he’s never had a brace against William Saliba’s Arsenal. France should be able to control the pace with its build-up play, and Norway’s struggles in the back have been overshadowed by poor opponents. Les Bleus can at least challenge the Scandanavians’ aerial supremacy.
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