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The MLB Father’s Day slate concludes with an NL East matchup between the Mets and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The division rivals split the first two games of the series and will meet in the rubber game of the set under the lights Sunday night. The Phillies have climbed back to six games over .500 but are still 7.5 games behind the Braves for the division lead. Meanwhile, the Mets are still eight games under .500 and last in the division. As both squads look to claim the series win, let’s take a look at my top three best bets from the player prop market in this Sunday Night Baseball matchup.
The Phillies are -186 on the Moneyline in this matchup, and they are getting 89% of the bets as of Sunday afternoon. The over/under is eight runs, with 73% of bets coming in on the over.
For each Major League Baseball matchup, DraftKings Sportsbook has a wide variety of batter and pitcher props on the board, so let’s take a look at a few strong plays for Sunday night.
One of the main reasons that the Phillies are so heavily favored is that they have a huge starting pitching advantage with Wheeler taking the mound against David Peterson. Wheeler has earned the win in six of his 10 starts this season, compiling a 2.01 ERA and 3.39 FIP through 62 2/3 innings with 62 strikeouts. He has worked at least six innings in all but one start this season and has given up more than three runs only one time.
Wheeler has won three of his four home games with a 0.75 WHIP and 1.78 ERA at home. He’ll be facing the Mets for the first time this season, but he has been very sharp in his last few starts, including wins over the Marlins and Padres in his two most recent outings. He gave up two runs on four hits in 13 innings over those two home starts with 17 strikeouts.
Since he has found his form and comes in with so much momentum, he has a good chance of getting through at least five innings and giving his team an opportunity to win. Since the lineup has mashed Peterson in the past, he should get plenty of run support as well, which is why I like this “to record a win” prop at basically even money.
In another prop right around even-money, Sosa has a good chance to get at least two HRR (hits, runs and RBI), since he’s likely to get the start against the lefty Peterson. Sosa is 6-for-9 (.667) with a double and a home run against Peterson in the past.
While he’s not one of the Phillies’ most well-known hitters, he has thrived against lefties. He’s hitting .258 with three homers, two doubles and a triple against lefties this season. He is 8-for-20 (.400) in his last seven games, and he has gone over this HRR prop in three of his last four starts.
He can slot into several different spots around the field, but his bat against lefties and especially against Peterson is what makes him a good option at these odds if you think the Phillies will get plenty of runs again on Sunday, after scoring 15 runs Saturday night.
Taking any of the Mets bats to do much against Wheeler is a tough pick, but Benge has been one of the team’s most consistent hitters since moving to the top of the lineup and will have multiple paths to hitting this total base prop, especially since he usually hits leadoff.
Benge is hitting .291 over his last 19 games with two doubles, two triples and five homers. Over that stretch, he has averaged 2.3 total bases per game with an impressive .557 SLG and .381 wOBA along with a 43.1% hard-hit rate and 12.1% barrel rate.
He homered on Saturday night in one of the few highlights for the Mets, and he has gone over this total base prop line in three straight games and in four of his last six. A lot of things have gone wrong for the Mets this season, but Benge’s development and arrival have been a huge bright spot, and he’ll be a big part of the future of the team.
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