The Yankees reach Kauffman Stadium at 31-22, still sitting second in the AL East, but the last week has made the record feel less polished. New York snapped a three-game skid Sunday on Aaron Judge’s walk-off homer, a two-run shot that also ended his first HR and RBI drought since May 10. Before that swing, the Yankees had scored only five runs over 39 innings, a brutal offensive lull for a club still ranking sixth in MLB in runs scored and third in runs allowed. Kansas City enters 22-31, fourth in the AL Central, but finally showed some pulse by taking two straight from Seattle after a 1-10 slide. The matchup history still leans hard toward New York: the Yankees have won nine straight regular-season meetings against the Royals and swept Kansas City earlier this year by a combined 24-6. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and the New York Yankees.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Royals vs. Yankees prediction, preview

Will Warren gives New York the better power arm, and his April look against Kansas City is a real part of the handicap. Warren enters 6-1 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 62 strikeouts in 52.1 innings, then layers that with a Statcast profile that mostly supports the run prevention: .293 wOBA allowed, .283 xwOBA, .380 wOBAcon, .364 xwOBAcon, 90.1 mph average exit velocity allowed, 40.3% hard-hit rate, 33.3% sweet-spot rate and 6.3% barrel rate. He already punched out 11 Royals in seven innings in April, and Kansas City’s lineup gives him a swing-and-miss route with a team split of .244 AVG, .700 OPS and 312 strikeouts vs. right-handed pitching. Michael Wacha is the roadblock. He is 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 55 strikeouts, already held the Yankees to six innings of three-hit ball, and carries a steadier contact sheet than most mid-tier starters: .282 wOBA allowed, .312 xwOBA, 88.6 mph EV allowed, 39.2% hard-hit rate and 8.2% barrel rate.

New York’s lineup has enough top-six force to make the full-game angle better than the early-inning angle. Trent Grisham, Judge, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Jazz Chisholm Jr. give the Yankees left-handed pressure against Wacha while preserving right-handed damage through Judge and Goldschmidt. Rice is the cleanest current bat in the order: .282 AVG, 16 HR, 33 RBI and a 1.000 OPS, plus a monster split against right-handed pitching at .299/.396/.658 with 11 HR, 26 RBI, 20 extra-base hits and a 1.054 OPS. The batted-ball sheet is even louder: .432 wOBA, .406 xwOBA, .546 wOBAcon, .506 xwOBAcon, 92.7 mph EV, 53.7% hard-hit rate, 40.5% sweet-spot rate and 18.2% barrel rate. Judge still owns 17 HR and elite contact despite the quiet stretch, while Goldschmidt has been a dangerous specialty bat at .284/.391/.581 with five HR, a 172 wRC+, .448 xwOBA, .631 xSLG, 56.6% hard-hit rate and 19.3% barrel rate. Jazz gives the sixth spot speed and recent-form juice, making this lineup far less fragile once Wacha turns it over a second and third time.

Kansas City’s best case has enough shape to respect. Bobby Witt Jr. is still the engine, entering at .295 with seven HR, 23 RBI, 62 hits, 16 steals and an .833 OPS, and his righty-split production keeps him live against Warren with roughly a .287-.294 average, six HR and 19 RBI in that lane. Salvador Perez gives the Royals the freshest run-production bat after going 3-for-4 with three RBI Sunday, when Kansas City scored in the fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth innings and Carter Jensen added a two-run double in the fifth-inning rally. The left-handed pocket is the Warren stress point: Vinnie Pasquantino, Jensen, Jac Caglianone and Michael Massey all get the platoon lane against a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA, .255 AVG allowed and 1.310 WHIP vs. left-handed hitters, compared with a 2.40 ERA and .225 AVG allowed vs. righties. Warren has also been far shakier with traffic, allowing a 1.526 WHIP with runners on base and an 11.47 ERA with RISP, which makes Witt’s speed and Perez/Jensen/Caglianone’s run-production slots more dangerous if Kansas City strings the inning. The thinner part is the full-game engine: the Royals average 3.91 runs per game, rank 25th in MLB in runs scored, sit only 14th in run prevention, and their offense vs. right-handed pitching is closer to ordinary at roughly .244/.316/.384 with a .700 OPS. That puts real weight on Witt, Perez and one left-handed bat to turn Warren’s split leak into a crooked frame rather than scattered traffic.

Yankees vs. Royals pick, best bet

The danger to the Yankees ticket is straightforward: Wacha can give Kansas City length, Kauffman’s warm air helps gap contact, and New York’s offense has been uneven on the road, hitting only .223/.306/.378 away from Yankee Stadium with 31 of its 75 HR coming outside the Bronx. That road split makes Yankees -1.5 too thin, and it makes the full-game over at 8.5 expensive with two starters who can miss enough barrels. The better path is late leverage. Kansas City’s bullpen is the vulnerable unit, ranking 23rd in ERA and 26th in WHIP, and the recent form is shaky enough to matter after Lucas Erceg allowed three runs on four hits Sunday. A separate bullpen tracker has Kansas City’s relief group at 17.2 IP over the previous seven days with a 7.13 ERA in that window. New York has had its own closer wobble with David Bednar allowing seven runs over his last eight outings, but the Yankees’ bullpen still owns a stronger season shape at 3.51 ERA, and Aaron Boone already showed flexibility by using Tim Hill to finish Sunday instead of forcing Bednar back into another tense ninth.

Best bet: Yankees ML (-130). This is a full-game trust play. Warren has the strikeout profile and prior matchup success to keep Kansas City from building early volume, while Wacha’s efficiency and earlier six-inning showing against New York make the Yankees F5 or team-total angles less comfortable. Over nine innings, the gap widens: New York has the better run differential profile, the deeper top six, the cleaner bullpen, the stronger matchup history and the superior righty-split damage through Rice, Judge, Bellinger, Goldschmidt and Jazz. The playable number is -135. The way it gets clipped is Wacha stretching seven innings and Witt/Perez/Caglianone turning Warren’s lefty lane into a crooked frame, but the full-game roster math still points to the Yankees having more ways to win after the sixth.

Final score projection: Yankees 5, Royals 3.

Best bet: Yankees (-130) at Royals

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