Garion Thorne details his top home run props for tonight’s slate, including bets for Carson Benge, Bobby Witt Jr. and Joc Pederson.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s loaded slate: Carson Benge, Bobby Witt Jr. and Joc Pederson.
Let’s break them down.
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +359 | After not hitting a home run till late April, Witt Jr. has nine and a .211 ISO in his last 205 plate appearances. Foster Griffin owns an eighth percentile opponent barrel rate (11.8%) that has translated into surrendering 2.00 long balls per nine to right-handed batters. |
| Carson Benge | +488 | Since May 1, Benge is slashing .294/.358/.444 with a 129 wRC+. Now he gets to hit at Great American Ball Park against the struggling Brady Singer. In the RHP’s last eight starts, LHBs have combined to hit 4.03 long balls per nine with a .696 slugging percentage. |
| Joc Pederson | +445 | Dating back to May 19, Pederson is slashing .297/.373/.649 with a .351 ISO and a 177 wRC+ in 84 plate appearances. That span of time includes six of Pederson’s nine home runs hit this season. Meanwhile, Zebby Matthews is an extreme fly ball pitcher (48.1%) who enters this evening’s start with a sixth percentile opponent barrel rate (12.8%). |
In-depth analysis below.
It took Witt Jr. a long time to hit his first home run of the season in 2026. In fact, the All-Star had zero long balls after his first 27 games. Still, once the seal was broken — all those struggles were an afterthought. Since April 26, Witt Jr. has collected nine home runs and a .211 ISO across 205 plate appearances. For the season as a whole, Witt Jr. possesses 95th percentile average exit velocity (93.3) and a 93rd percentile expected wOBA (.384). You probably don’t need me telling you this, but the 26-year-old is one of the most talented baseball players on the planet. On Tuesday, he’ll draw an opposite-hand matchup with Foster Griffin. Like every Nationals starter, Griffin gives up his share of loud contact. An eighth percentile opponent barrel rate (11.8%) has translated into surrendering 2.00 long balls per nine to right-handed batters. Woof.
There’s two ways to back the Mets’ home run props on Tuesday: The smart way and the fun way. The former is accomplished by simply betting on Juan Soto (+195) to go deep in an amazing matchup against Brady Singer. However, as a rule of thumb, I’m never really looking to write up a home run prop that has shorter odds than 2/1. So, let’s pivot to New York’s other potent left-handed bat. Benge has been quite good since shaking off an early rookie slump in April. In fact, in his last 176 plate appearances, the outfielder is slashing .294/.358/.444 with a 129 wRC+. As the Mets’ leadoff man in a road game, Benge will likely get five opportunities to take advantage of the hitter-friendly dimensions of Great American Ball Park — with a majority of those at-bats coming with the aforementioned Singer on the mound. It’s been a real struggle for the veteran RHP in recent weeks, with Singer having conceded 14 home runs in his past eight outings. It’s a span of time where opposing LHBs have combined to hit 4.03 long balls per nine with a .696 slugging percentage.
I think a lot of people were wondering if Pederson’s career was over after a very underwhelming campaign in 2025. I mean, the 34-year-old doesn’t play much defense. He’s also a straight platoon bat. If you’re not crushing RHPs, what exactly are you bringing to the table? Fortunately, the former Dodgers prospect has turned things around in 2026 — specifically in the past four weeks. Dating back to May 19, Pederson is slashing .297/.373/.649 with a .351 ISO and a 177 wRC+ in 84 plate appearances. That span of time includes six of Pederson’s nine home runs hit this season. In layman’s terms, the man is on fire. He’ll get a chance to keep the good vibes rolling along on Tuesday, as the Rangers will square-of with the right-handed Zebby Matthews. The 26-year-old is basically the perfect opponent when hunting a long ball. Matthews is an extreme fly ball pitcher (48.1%) who enters this evening’s start with a sixth percentile opponent barrel rate (12.8%). In his last appearance on June 11, Matthews gave up three homers at Comerica Park. That’s hard to do.
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