On the other hand if releases are frequent and small the whole long term support use case sort of collapses
That depends a lot on who your users are. If users are other developers who are expected to be constantly updating their projects anyway, then change is just part of the landscape. But if you're building for end users who are just trying to get their work done, constant change is the enemy. Most end users would rather have their application work consistently than have to adapt to constant change, even if that change is supposedly an improvement.
If I'm working on a years-long project, it's critical that my software work consistently the whole time so my results at the beginning and end are truly comparable. Maybe there will be an improvement that's worth spending the time to redo my work, but you're going to have to sell me on it. Even people with less stringent requirements than mine- and I am working in an area where consistency is unusually important- the temporary loss of productivity adapting to change is a real cost. Developers need to be mindful that those costs don't disappear just because they've pushed them onto their users.
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