British businesses face a summer of soaring travel costs and disrupted supply chains as the United Kingdom emerges as the European economy most vulnerable to a deepening jet fuel crisis triggered by the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a stark new assessment from Goldman Sachs.

The Wall Street investment bank has warned that commercial fuel inventories in Britain could fall to “critically low levels” within weeks, raising the prospect of formal rationing measures that would squeeze airlines, freight operators and the thousands of SMEs that depend on reliable air links to trade with overseas markets.

Goldman’s analysts pulled no punches in their note to clients, identifying the UK as “most exposed” among European nations because of three compounding weaknesses: depleted stockpiles, an unusually high dependence on imported fuel, and a domestic refining base that has been hollowed out over recent years. “The UK is the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, and it holds no strategic reserves, leaving commercial inventories as the primary buffer,” the bank concluded.

The numbers paint a sobering picture for owner-managed firms whose order books rely on the speed and reliability of British aviation. Jet fuel prices have doubled since hostilities erupted on 28 February, while carriers worldwide have stripped some two million seats from this month’s schedules in the past fortnight alone. With fuel accounting for up to a quarter of an airline’s operating costs, those increases are now flowing directly into ticket prices and freight rates.

IAG, the FTSE 100 parent of British Airways, has confirmed it will pass higher fuel costs through to passengers, conceding that its hedging programme has left it “not immune” to the volatility. Air France is bracing for a $2.4 billion increase in its annual fuel bill; American Airlines anticipates an additional $4 billion. Both have signalled fare rises and a paring back of passenger perks.

For UK plc, the implications stretch well beyond the holiday season. Michael O’Leary, chief executive of Ryanair, told reporters on Friday that European rivals were “desperately” hunting for flights to axe and would start doing so within weeks. Fuel providers, meanwhile, have warned airlines that Britain has the “most limited visibility” in Europe on future supply, a direct consequence of its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern imports.

The Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, last week conceded that holidaymakers may need to reconsider “where they go on holiday” — an unusually candid admission that has done little to reassure the travel trade or the SME exporters who use passenger flights’ belly-hold capacity to move time-sensitive goods to Europe and beyond.

Government ministers have publicly insisted that Britain can source fuel from alternative markets, but Goldman’s analysis exposes the structural fragility behind that confidence. The closure of Grangemouth, Scotland’s only oil refinery, in April 2025 stripped meaningful domestic capacity from the system. Question marks have also hung over the Prax Lindsey refinery in North Lincolnshire, though its new owner, US energy major Phillips 66, has insisted its acquisition will bolster UK fuel security.

Adding to the structural critique, a report from the Tony Blair Institute published this week argued that Europe’s tendency to frame energy policy primarily through a climate lens has left the continent paying two to three times more for power than its global competitors, while simultaneously deepening its reliance on imports, exactly the dependency now being so painfully exposed.

Brussels is scrambling to respond. The European Commission confirmed on Monday that it will issue formal guidance on jet fuel for airlines later this week. “I don’t think anyone knows how long this situation will last,” commission spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told reporters, “so the best we can do and the most effective thing that we can do and that we are doing is to prepare for all eventualities.”

The Gulf region accounts for roughly one fifth of jet fuel traded on international markets, and Europe is among its biggest customers. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, carriers across the continent are now bidding against one another for cargoes from Asia and the United States, and prices are climbing accordingly.

Fuel suppliers have indicated that May should remain manageable but have flagged “mid to late June as the potential start of disruptions” if the strait does not reopen, a timeline that puts the peak summer trading window for hospitality, travel and export-led SMEs squarely in the danger zone.

For the army of British small businesses whose growth plans assume cheap, plentiful air connectivity, from boutique tour operators and food exporters to professional services firms with European clients, the message from the City is uncomfortably clear: prepare for higher costs, longer delays, and the very real possibility that, for the first time in a generation, jet fuel may have to be rationed in Britain.

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