/ Oil markets are shifting away from crisis conditions, but geopolitical risk and elevated volatility remain part of the picture.
While oil prices are projected to decrease if a peace agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran, the descent likely won’t be as rapid as many anticipate.
Forecasts as of May 27, 2026 point to a meaningful but gradual fall in crude prices once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Brent and WTI are expected to move back toward the $70–90 range over the following quarters, rather than returning to pre-war levels immediately.
For materials prices, that implies several possible timelines for costs to return to pre-conflict levels.
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Having navigated the ‘energy shock’, supply chains are now preparing for peak season at time when uncertainty rules the market.
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