Cal Raleigh's 0-for-38 streak came to an end

Cal Raleigh recently broke his 0-for-38 hitless streak with a single against the Houston Astros. The Seattle Mariners catcher has been struggling in 2026, with the 0-for-38 slump being the worst of it.

Last year, Raleigh hit 60 home runs, was the AL MVP runner-up, and led the league in RBI’s. This year, he has struggled just to make contact with the baseball. The underlying data suggests a few positive trends, but there are some real concerns here. With plenty of time to turn things around, there is some data to suggest Raleigh’s slump is not just bad luck, but a combination of factors that could continue to affect him as the season continues.

Underlying Trends Suggest Raleigh’s Struggles Are Real & Concerning

In previous years, if you’d have clicked on Cal Raleigh’s baseball savant page, you would have seen a lot of bright red, indicating that Raleigh was in the top percentiles in most offensive categories.

This year, you’ll still see some red, but four of the six stats he is doing well in are defensive stats. Offensively, you’ll see quite a bit of blue, which means Raleigh is towards the bottom of the league in quite a few of these stats.

To be fair to Raleigh, some of these are metrics he’s always struggled with. The Seattle backstop has never had a high expected batting average, for instance. In 2024, he hit .220, with an xBA of .229. In 2025, he hit .247, with an xBA of .231. This year, his xBA has fallen to .183, and his actual batting average of .161 is even lower than that.

Raleigh’s never hit for a high average, but this year, he is even worse than usual.

Another thing Raleigh has always struggled with is strikeouts. In 2024, Raleigh sported a 28% strikeout rate, 31% whiff rate, and 32.8% chase rate. In 2025, his strikeout rate fell slightly, to 26.7%. His whiff rate was 31.5% and his chase rate was 31.8%. In 2026, his strikeout is rate is back up to 31.1%, with a whiff rate at 30.4% and a chase rate that has skyrocketed to 37.6%.

Once again, Raleigh has always struck out a bunch, but this year, he is striking out even more.

There is one stat, however, that stands out more than the rest.

Raleigh had a 43.5% hard-hit rate in 2022, a 41% hard-hit rate in 2023, a 48.1% hard-hit rate in 2024, and a 49.6% hard-hit rate in 2025.

This year? His hard hit rate is down to 30.8%. He’s hitting the ball hard about 20% less often. Only Eugenio Suarez has seen a larger dip in hard-hit rate between 2025 and 2026. Other stars around the league are seeing declines in their hard hit rates as well, such as Shohei Ohtani (-12.4%), Ronald Aucna Jr (-11.7%), Rafael Devers (-10.7%), and Kyle Schwarber (-9.6%). None has been as bad as Raleigh (-18.8%).

The reality is, if Raleigh is not hitting the ball hard very often, he’s not going to be able to hit nearly the same number of home runs as he did in 2025. And if Raleigh is not hitting home runs, he becomes a much easier batter to pitch to. Raleigh’s walk rate is down from 13.8% (95th percentile) to 10.2% (59th percentile). Chances are, it’s not because his eye has gotten that much worse over a one-year span. But when pitchers aren’t afraid of the home run, they are more willing to throw Raleigh strikes, leading to fewer walks.

The Silver Linings

It’s not all downhill for Raleigh. He is still sporting a strong 12.5% barrell rate, and his bat speed of 74.7% miles-per-hour is almost exactly the same as his 75.2% bat-speed from a year ago.

Raleigh is also playing good defense. He boasts a fielding run value in the 92nd percentile, and his blocks-above-average ranks in the 97th percentile. Because he’s been so valuable defensively, the Mariners will keep him in their lineup, giving him time to work through his offensive struggles.

Ultimately, however, it’s hard to see a world where Raleigh magically breaks out of this slump and regains his 2025 form, unless he sees a dramatic turnaround in his hard-hit-rate. So far, there’s no indication that is going to happen.