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C.J. Stroud is heading into a critical fourth season facing significant scrutiny.

The discussion around C.J. Stroud has spread around the league, and the Houston Texans certainly have their work cut out for them.

Stroud has followed his award-winning rookie season with back-to-back years of at least minor regression on the field. He has remained steadfast in his belief in himself, and Texans brass has spoken in a similar fashion, while also picking up his fifth-year option.

However, with no long-term deal in place, the speculative discourse continues.

C.J. Stroud Gets Polarizing Message as Contract Decision Looms Over Texans

ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime spoke with several executives around the league to gauge their opinions of Stroud heading into his fourth NFL season for an article published on May 2. The messaging was, as is to be expected, given his career so far, split.

However, the overwhelming sentiment from those who have, at least in theory, seen him most often–those in the AFC–was also quite clear.

The Texans would be wise to let this season play out or at least avoid resetting the market.

An unnamed AFC executive said Stroud is “plenty talented,” but questioned if he would look better in a different offense. The exec believes that the Texans ultimately “gotta pay him,” but also suggested an offer that was “low bar” for the QB position, noting Houston could save money.

The rising price of quarterbacks (and players in general, thanks to the NFL salary cap) has typically led to QB’s resetting the market when their time comes.

Elite Defense Leading as Texans Evaluating Potential Franchise QB

The percentage of the salary cap, which continues to rise, is more important than the dollar amount when it comes to contracts. The messaging reflected that, with another executive saying it is a matter of whether the Texans believe Stroud is worth “22% of the cap.”

That same exec said the “smart play” was to pick up his option and invest in the roster. Yet another exec said that “it hasn’t been perfect,” and noted the Texans’ defense has carried.

Houston ranks third in total yards allowed and seventh in TDs allowed since 2023, per Stathead.

The exec who cited the Texans’ defense said that they can keep their “leverage” with Stround playing on the fifth-year option, and that it “lets him bet on himself too, which is what you want” from the QB.

Even an AFC scout got into the discussion, noting that waiting a year might raise the cost some, but being overeager could prove even more costly.

C.J. Stroud Heading Into Critical Campaign

Stroud must improve before most of the executives polled would feel comfortable paying him if they were in Texans general manager Nick Caserio’s situation. But they are not, and that is as important to remember as the feedback itself.

To that end, Caserio has only said he is happy to have Stroud and is excited about this coming season.

Stroud is 28-18 in his career, including a 21-10 mark against the AFC.

Stroud is tied for the fourth-most QB wins since entering the league. Among the 17 QBs with at least 20 wins during that span, Stroud ranks 9th in yards, 13th in touchdowns and passer rating, and is tied for the third-lowest interception rate.