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(Photo by Ellen Schmidt/Getty Images)

The Minnesota Vikings‘ first season with JJ McCarthy as the full-time starter was a far cry from what the franchise had hoped when drafting him in the top 10 just two years ago.

But despite that, McCarthy winning the QB1 job again in 2026 over newcomer Kyler Murray would actually prove the best possible outcome for the Vikings moving forward. And it isn’t currently out of the realm of possibility that McCarthy might come out on top.

“The Vikings asked him to fix some things, including his ability to layer the ball, throw at different speeds,” Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reported on McCarthy Friday, June 19. “I’m told he’s addressed it in a major way, and it has shown.”

Kyler Murray Has More Trade Value Than JJ McCarthy

GettyQuarterbacks JJ McCarthy (left) and Kyler Murray (right) of the Minnesota Vikings.

The central thesis of the argument for McCarthy over Murray as a better outcome in Minneapolis is multifaceted. The first piece is that Murray, who the franchise signed for the lowest price possible via the veteran’s league minimum, will carry considerably more trade value come the mid-season deadline in early November.

The Arizona Cardinals couldn’t generate a market for Murray this offseason because any team trading for him would have had to eat the $36 million in salary Arizona is paying the QB for the upcoming campaign, minus the $1.3 million now coming from Minnesota. The Vikings, however, should be able to get a meaningful draft asset back in return from a quarterback-needy team if Murray becomes available.

Judd Zulgad of SKOR North suggested via his Substack on Friday, June 19 that Minnesota could potentially pursue a trade of either Murray or McCarthy, whichever player doesn’t win the starting job, and move forward with Carson Wentz as QB2.

“Wentz, who joined the Vikings near the end of camp last summer, provides a veteran presence and will take over the No. 2 job if McCarthy or Murray is moved,” Zulgad wrote.

Vikings Face Problem Next Offseason if Kyler Murray Excels

GettyQuarterback Kyler Murray of the Minnesota Vikings.

Secondly, Murray’s arrival in Minnesota created a future conundrum from Day 1.

If Murray stinks, he’s a minimal sunk cost and the team can move on before the deadline and/or after the season, though trading him mid-year after several bad starts would greatly decrease from the value he theoretically has now. If he’s good, Murray will move into unrestricted free agency next March and likely command a significant payday.

Even if Murray were to land a deal next spring worth half of the NFL’s top APY, which belongs to Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at $64 million annually, that would still equal a $32 million average across a multiyear contract for an undersized QB with a meaningful injury history who does not possess the ideal physical traits to run Kevin O’Connell’s offense.

However, the Vikings are going to have a tough time letting Murray walk if he leads them back to the playoffs considering the team watched Sam Darnold depart for the Seattle Seahawks ahead of last season and win the Super Bowl following a 14-3 Pro Bowl campaign in Minneapolis.

That decision cost former general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah his job, and a repeat of the mistake might mean the end of O’Connell’s tenure as well.

JJ McCarthy Winning QB1 Role Best Financial Outcome for Vikings

GettyMinnesota Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy.

Finally, there are the financials and the roster flexibility to consider if McCarthy wins the gig and the Minnesota trades Murray for a Day 2 draft pick, thereby avoiding a potentially team-altering decision on the two-time Pro Bowler following the 2026 campaign.

McCarthy is entering the third season of his four-year, $22 million rookie deal. The Vikings will decide by May 1, 2027 whether to exercise a fifth-year option on that contract, which is their right as the QB is a former first-round selection.

The league can’t figure the price tag on McCarthy’s 2028 season until the upcoming campaign concludes, as his playing time, accomplishments, potential awards and other as of yet unknown information will factor into the equation. But suffice it to say, he will be considerably less expensive over a short-term contract than Murray will be across several years — assuming Murray produces a quality performance in 2026.

The whole point of drafting McCarthy in 2024 and forcing him into the starting lineup in 2025 after missing his entire rookie campaign with a knee injury was to install a hopefully winning QB at low cost and use the money left over to spend on talent around him. If McCarthy wins the job this summer and shows meaningful progress during the regular season, that dream remains alive for two more years after this one.

If things were to fall apart after that, Minnesota could transition much more cheaply and smoothly to a new starting quarterback than if the Vikings brought back Murray and the injuries/mediocre play that plagued him in Arizona over the past few years returned to haunt him in Minneapolis.

Kyler Murray Odds-On Favorite to Win Vikings’ Starting Job

GettyQuarterbacks Kyler Murray (left) and JJ McCarthy (right) of the Minnesota Vikings.

Most signs currently point to Murray earning the job throughout the course of training camp and the preseason, which makes sense. He is far more experience and has attained a level of success far above anything McCarthy has accomplished over his first two years in the league.

But McCarthy is just 23 years old. He has displayed an edge with his comments on the QB battle against Murray and improved his play meaningfully since last year by all accounts.

Should McCarthy get a shot to start at some point during the first half of the season, assuming he doesn’t win the QB1 job outright, Vikings fans and the organization alike should be pulling for his success, as that represents the best possible outcome for the franchise longterm.