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Oklahoma City Thunder star reserve Ajay Mitchell could be the biggest swing factor of Game 7 vs. the San Antonio Spurs.

The Oklahoma City Thunder got a notable vote of confidence before their biggest game of the season.

Oklahoma City opened as a 4.5-point favorite against the San Antonio Spurs in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, according to ESPN/DraftKings. That line matters because it arrived after the Spurs hammered the Thunder 118-91 in Game 6 to force the series back to Oklahoma City. San Antonio broke the game open with a 20-0 run late in the third quarter, while Oklahoma City scored just 13 points in the period.

The winner advances to the NBA Finals. The loser’s season ends.

That is why the line is more than a betting note. It shows oddsmakers still view the Thunder as the more likely team to survive at home, even after one of their worst performances of the postseason and with real injury questions still hovering over the rotation.

Thunder Still Favored After Spurs’ Game 6 Statement

San Antonio did not merely extend the series. The Spurs changed the tone of it.

Victor Wembanyama led San Antonio with 28 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks in Game 6, while the Spurs’ young backcourt helped swing the game with strong production from Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper. Harper scored 18 points and Castle added 17 points with nine assists as San Antonio’s reserves outscored Oklahoma City’s bench.

For Oklahoma City, the concerning part was not just the final margin. It was how many pressure points showed up at once.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was held to 15 points, and the Thunder could not generate enough offense once San Antonio’s defense tightened. Jalen Williams returned from injury but was limited, giving Oklahoma City another question heading into Game 7 rather than a clean answer.

That makes the 4.5-point spread notable. Home court is clearly part of the number, but so is the market’s broader belief that Oklahoma City’s Game 6 was closer to an outlier than a collapse.

The Thunder now have to prove that is true.

Ajay Mitchell’s Injury Status Looms Over Oklahoma City’s Rotation

Ajay Mitchell’s status remains one of the under-the-radar issues for the Thunder because it affects how many reliable ball-handling and two-way options Mark Daigneault can trust in a closeout setting.

Mitchell was ruled out for Game 4 with a right soleus strain, according to the NBA’s official injury report.

That matters against San Antonio because the Spurs have made this series physically demanding on Oklahoma City’s guards. When the Thunder are at full strength, they can lean into waves of pressure, secondary creation and lineup flexibility. When Mitchell is unavailable or limited, the burden shifts more heavily to Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and the rest of the guard rotation.

Game 7s often come down to the stars, but rotation depth can decide the middle quarters. Oklahoma City cannot afford another stretch like the third quarter of Game 6, when San Antonio’s run turned a competitive game into a rout.

Jalen Williams’ Injury Limited Him, but Game 7 Could Still Change the Series

Jalen Williams is the bigger swing piece.

Williams was cleared to return for Game 6 after missing three straight games, according to the Times of India. But his return did not immediately solve Oklahoma City’s problems. Reuters reported that Williams contributed just one point in limited minutes during the Thunder’s Game 6 loss.

That leaves Oklahoma City in a difficult spot. Williams’ presence alone changes the scouting report, but the Thunder need more than decoy minutes from one of their most important players. They need his downhill scoring, defensive versatility and ability to punish San Antonio when the Spurs load up on Gilgeous-Alexander.

The 4.5-point spread suggests oddsmakers still trust the Thunder to respond.

Now Oklahoma City has to match that confidence with a Game 7 performance worthy of it.