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Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews

A major 2026 offseason storyline for the Maple Leafs is the future of captain Auston Matthews in Toronto. The failed 2025-26 season, plus the lack of certitude moving forward, has spurred all sorts of trade rumors and speculation.

During his end-of-season media availability, Matthews was clear about his inability to “predict the future.” The politically correct response showed just how much the 28-year-old wanted to skirt a definitive response.

Even if he wanted to give Maple Leafs fans a solid reply, he can’t. The fact is that there are so many pending issues that it’s hard to swing in one direction or another. That’s why Toronto fans will have to wait for a definitive answer.

The biggest holdup is the ongoing GM search. Even with the Maple Leafs down to two candidates, it’s quite challenging for Matthews to decide. The issue isn’t so much a matter of who becomes GM. The issue lies in what direction the new exec will take.

That brings the second issue at play. If the Maple Leafs bet on quick retool, Matthews stays. But if the plan is to go ahead with a long-term rebuild, the odds are against Matthews sticking around.

It’s not that the Leafs captain is looking to jump ship. It’s that he’s been around long enough to give the organization a chance to get things together. It has been a decade, and no concrete results have emerged.

Still, fans shouldn’t expect any decisions on Matthews’ future soon. Much of that depends on what happens at the 2026 NHL Draft.

Maple Leafs Future Could Hinge on 2026 NHL Draft

The path forward for the Maple Leafs could hinge on the 2026 NHL Draft. The Leafs currently hold the fifth-overall selection. If that situation holds, Toronto will get its first-round pick back. That’s the pick originally pledged to be the Boston Bruins in the Brandon Carlo trade.

A top-five pick this year could give the Maple Leafs a star to build around. As such, it could either precipitate Matthews’ departure or convince him to stay for a while longer.

It’s worth pointing out that the former Rocket Richard winner will be entering the third year of a four-year contract. He isn’t eligible to sign an extension yet. But there will be plenty of speculation as to the odds of him signing one next summer.

Toronto Rebound Could Change Narrative around Matthews

The reason this conversation is even a thing is because of the Maple Leafs’ poor 2025-26 season. If the Leafs were playing postseason hockey this spring, the narrative would be completely different.

That’s why the Maple Leafs must get off to a strong start next season. A strong first month would likely quell discussion about Matthews’ future. However, a poor start would immediately unleash trade discussions.

Unfortunately, another poor season by Toronto could open the door to the inevitable rebuild the organization so desperately wants to avoid.

The coming weeks will shed plenty of light on the situation, with the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery being a watershed moment for the Maple Leafs’ direction moving forward.