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The Toronto Maple Leafs and Vancouver Canucks could have a trade thesis that might make sense this offseason.

The talk of Vancouver Canucks forward Elias Pettersson heading to the Toronto Maple Leafs is nothing new. The 27-year-old center has been linked to Toronto at various points over the last couple of seasons.

But this time, things might be slightly different.

One of the prevailing talking points over the last couple of months has been the increasing willingness by the Vancouver Canucks to retain salary on Pettersson. Conversely, the Maple Leafs are also looking to unload Morgan Rielly.

Rielly, a BC native, has apparently given Toronto a list of teams he would be amenable to joining. The list purportedly includes several West Coast clubs. It’s possible that Vancouver is on the list.

So, would a Maple Leafs-Canucks trade involving Pettersson and Rielly make sense?

With Toronto and Vancouver in different places, the idea might not be that crazy. The biggest issue keeping the Canucks from trading Pettersson is his cap hit. Insiders like David Pagnotta have hinted at the possibility of Vancouver being willing to retain enough to bring the Swedish center’s cap hit down to $9 million.

If that were the case, would Toronto be willing to take a chance on Pettersson? The cap hit wouldn’t be quite so onerous if Rielly’s cap hit came off the books. Rielly has a $7.5 million cap hit. So, getting that off the books and adding Pettersson at $9 million would mean a jump of about $1.5 million.

That’s not bad, but the overall process of making the trade happen wouldn’t be quite so easy.

Canucks Might Not Be So Willing to Retain Unless Toronto Paid Up

The reality here is that the Canucks might not be so willing to retain unless the Maple Leafs pay up.

That would mean sending Rielly to Vancouver along with some other sweetener(s) to make the deal work. While it’s unclear who or what the Canucks might want in such a deal, the Maple Leafs could consider pulling the trigger if the ask wasn’t unreasonable.

Perhaps Vancouver might push for a first-round draft pick. However, the Leafs only have the Colorado Avalanche’s 2027 pick to work with. That might not be enough to move the needle.

But there might be another way this deal could play out.

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Maple Leafs Could Take on Pettersson’s Full Cap Hit and Force Vancouver to Pay Up

What if things worked the other way around? What if the Maple Leafs took on Pettersson’s full cap hit, forcing the Canucks to pay up? In that situation, Vancouver would be taking on Rielly’s full cap hit plus throwing in a sweetener for the service of taking Pettersson’s contract off their hands?

It’s a possibility, but not one the Maple Leafs would consider unless the other pieces coming back offered a substantial upside.

Ultimately, the idea of Pettersson heading to Toronto may be more complex than initially thought. The Maple Leafs would certainly be willing to look into the former first-round pick, but certainly not at a higher price point.

The Canucks would love to add a veteran defenseman like Rielly to mentor some of the younger blueliners coming up in their system. But it seems that unless separate deals happen, the idea of a trade in which Pettersson and Rielly are the main pieces seems like a pipe dream.