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Steve Kerr, Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors have had a busy week. Steve Kerr is back on a two-year deal, Stephen Curry extension conversations are on the horizon, and the front office has made clear it intends to be aggressive in reshaping the roster. Now comes the next major moment in what is shaping up to be one of the more consequential offseasons in franchise history.

Sunday’s NBA Draft Lottery takes place at 3 p.m. ET, and the Warriors will find out where they stand in a draft class widely regarded as one of the strongest in recent memory. Golden State finished 37-45 this past season and was eliminated by the Phoenix Suns in the play-in tournament, giving them the 11th-best odds heading into the lottery.

The numbers are not in their favor. But they are not entirely out of the picture either.

Warriors’ Lottery Odds and What They Mean

GettyStephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors.

Golden State enters Sunday with a 2% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick and a 9.4% chance of jumping into the top four. Their most likely outcome is remaining at No. 11, where they hold a 77.6% probability of selecting. There is also a 12.6% chance they fall to No. 12 and a 0.4% chance of sliding to No. 13.

For context, the Dallas Mavericks found themselves in a similar position last year. They finished 39-43 with a 1.8% chance at the top pick and defied the odds, landing No. 1 and selecting Cooper Flagg, the 2026 NBA Rookie of the Year. Golden State is not counting on that kind of luck, but the precedent exists.

If the Warriors do manage to jump into the top three, the calculus changes significantly. Prospects like AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, and Darryn Peterson are considered generational talents who could contribute immediately and meaningfully extend the window around Curry. Landing one of them would alter the entire direction of the franchise.

What Experts Are Projecting at No. 11

GettyThe NBA lottery is on Sunday, and Darryn Peterson is currently No. 2 on the 2026 NBA Mock Draft list.

Assuming the Warriors stay put, the mock draft landscape offers a range of opinions on who Golden State should target. The consensus points toward a versatile wing or forward who can contribute on both ends without needing the ball in his hands to be effective.

Here is what the major outlets are projecting for the Warriors at No. 11:

USA TODAY Sports projects Labaron Philon out of Alabama, a dynamic guard with playmaking ability. CBS Sports and On3 both project Aday Mara out of Michigan, a skilled big with an intriguing upside. ESPN projects Karim Lopez from the New Zealand Breakers, a versatile two-way forward with international experience. Bleacher Report projects Yaxel Lendeborg out of Michigan, a switchable defender with length. NBAdraft.net projects Brayden Burries out of Arizona, a wing with shooting ability and positional versatility.

The lack of consensus reflects how wide open the middle of this draft is. What is clear is that the Warriors are looking for a player who can slot into their system and provide a meaningful contribution alongside Curry without requiring a major role from day one.

What the Pick Could Mean for Golden State

GettyWill Richard of the Golden State Warriors.

Last year’s draft yielded Will Richard out of Florida, a 56th overall pick acquired from the Memphis Grizzlies on draft night. Richard averaged 6.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.2 steals in 20 minutes per game while shooting 46.8% from the field. He is the kind of piece the Warriors have been building around Curry in recent years.

This pick, whether it stays at 11 or moves up, could serve a different purpose depending on how the front office approaches the offseason. If Golden State pursues a blockbuster trade for a star, the pick becomes a key asset in that conversation. If they build more incrementally, whoever they select could become a meaningful rotation piece for the next two to three seasons.

Final Word for the Warriors

The lottery is one piece of a much larger puzzle. Kerr is back. Curry’s extension is coming. The roster is being rearranged.

Sunday will not answer all of the questions. But it will answer one of the most important ones.

The Warriors know their odds. They are hoping Sunday goes the way it did for Dallas last year.