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James Harden #1 and Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Cleveland Cavaliers look on against the Detroit Pistons during overtime in Game Five of the Second Round of the NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena on May 13, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan.

The Cleveland Cavaliers may have blown their opportunity of advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals when they dropped Game 6 at home to the Detroit Pistons. Oddsmakers and analysts alike widely expect the Pistons to prevail in Sunday’s Game 7, setting up a clash against the New York Knicks in the next round.

The Cavaliers enter Game 7 against the Pistons as 4.5-point underdogs, via DraftKings sportsbook. Also worth noting is that the Pistons are 5-2 at home in the playoffs and have crushed opponents by an average margin of 12.8 points at Little Caesars Arena. In those five wins, they shot 47.7% from the field and 39.7% from three, with role players like Duncan Robinson, Daniss Jenkins and Caris LeVert performing at an elite level.

It would take a lot for the Cavs to pull off a win amid a hostile Detroit crowd, especially considering that the Pistons have not lost back-to-back games at home since last year’s regular season — an impeccable record that includes this year’s playoffs.

Detroit Pistons Seek Revenge

The Pistons are still stinging from their unexpected Game 5 loss at home when they blew a nine-point lead with less than three minutes left in regulation. They showed a lot of resolve by winning Game 6 to force a Game 7, but not surprisingly. J.B. Bickerstaff’s staff similarly overcame a 3-1 deficit against the Orlando Magic in the first round, including trailing by as many as 24 points in Game 6 before pulling off a stunning comeback win. That’s precisely why Bickerstaff did not act surprised when his troops pulled off a dominant 115-94 win in Game 6 on Friday night.

“They just don’t quit,” Bickerstaff said of his team, via ESPN’s Jamal Collier. “The resolve that they have, the belief that they have in one another. They just have the ability to bounce back mentally where they don’t hang on to things.”

“We did what needed to be done,” Bickerstaff added. “When we’re at our best, it’s the defense that’s going to carry us. It’s the physicality. I was pleased that we were allowed to play our style of basketball tonight where we can be legally physical, legally handsy, and just make it difficult on people.”

The James Harden Factor

Another reason that oddsmakers don’t trust the Cleveland Cavaliers is James Harden’s notorious history of underperforming in do-or-die playoff games.

The future Hall of Famer has averaged 19.3  points, 7.9 assists and 5.3 rebounds in the seven Game 7s he has played in his career, while shooting a terrible 35.5% from the field and 22.4% from three. His teams have gone 3-4 in such situations, which include three consecutive losses in 2025 (LA Clippers vs Denver Nuggets), 2023 (Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics) and 2021 (Brooklyn Nets vs Milwaukee Bucks).

In his previous two Game 7s, Harden averaged a shocking 8.0 points while shooting 5-of-19 from the field and 2-of-9 from three.

ESPN’s Zach Kram believes Harden’s tendency to underperform in big moments could cost the Cavaliers a shot at the Eastern Conference Finals.

“The Cavs made a win-now midseason trade at the deadline to acquire James Harden for this exact moment, but falling short of their goal once again will open a whirlwind of questions,” Kram wrote, previewing Game 7.

Pistons vs Cavaliers Game 7 tips off at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday.