Will the Force be with Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu at the box office?

If prerelease tracking is right, the Jon Favreau-directed movie — a continuation of his Disney+ series The Mandalorian — will open in the $80 million range at the domestic box office over the long Memorial Day weekend, according to sources with access to the data. That’s in line with expectations from Lucasfilm and Disney, according to insiders.

While it is the first Star Wars film on the big screen since COVID, it doesn’t face the same pressure that a title in the core franchise would, such as 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which opened to $177.3 million. Lucasfilm also has next year’s Star Wars: Starfighter on the docket, from director Shawn Levy and star Ryan Gosling.

Last year’s Memorial Day tentpole was the Tom Cruise-led Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning, which debuted to $79 million. In 2018, Solo: A Star Wars Story — a prequel spin-off — opened to $84 million domestically over the three-day Memorial Day weekend and $104 million for the four days.

The marketing campaign for Mandalorian and Grogu will go into overdrive on May the 4th, the unofficial Star Wars holiday. Among other offerings, Lucasfilm will show 25 minutes of footage of The Mandalorian and the Grogu in select Imax theaters across the globe.

Favreau, also creator of the Disney+ series The Mandalorian, directed the movie from a script he co-wrote with Dave Filoni and Noah Kloor. Filoni, a George Lucas protege, was upped to oversee the creative direction of Lucasfilm as president and chief creative officer earlier this year, following Kathleen Kennedy’s departure.

Filoni and Favreau have both stressed that moviegoers didn’t need to be Star Wars history buffs to understand The Mandalorian, since it features new characters, including Pedro Pascal‘s Mandalorian.

In the Mandalorian saga, the evil Empire has fallen and Imperial warlords remain scattered throughout the galaxy. As the fledgling New Republic works to protect everything the Rebellion fought for, they have enlisted the help of Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin (Pascal) and his young apprentice Grogu.

Debuting on Disney+ in 2019, Favreau’s The Mandalorian became a watercooler sensation thanks in large part to Baby Yoda, aka Grogu. The series lost momentum after during its third season and the decision was made to take the theatrical route.

Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White also star in Mandalorian and Grogu.