William Brangham:

As President Trump promotes his so-called deal with Iran, he's threatening to derail congressional efforts to renew a key spy power. And yet another of his foes says they are being investigated by his Justice Department.

It is Politics Monday. And Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Jasmine Wright of NOTUS are both here to break it all down. Tamara Keith is away today.

So nice to see you both. Hi.

Jasmine Wright, NOTUS:

Hello.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Hello.

William Brangham:

Jasmine, about this Iran deal, we still don't know all the details, critical things, about what happens with Iran's nuclear material, whether the strait really does reopen. Is the U.S. really going to give over hundreds of billions of dollars to the Iranians?

That said, is the White House just going to declare victory and hope that the details work out fine later?

Jasmine Wright:

I think you're seeing them start that process now, William. You have seen J.D. Vance, the vice president, who is leading these negotiations. You have already seen him on CBS, ABC, CNN, maybe by the end of the week, we will see him on PBS, going out and setting the narrative of what the deal is before the text actually comes out, because you're right.

We haven't seen the text. We haven't seen what this memorandum of understanding is that even gets you to the next phase of technical talks that U.S. officials say will last for 60 days, where they nail out all of those really hard details.

I have talked to experts who say that that is actually, those critical conversations are going to be the hard part, not what they have gotten here. Now, when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, obviously, that has been something that the White House has been focused on and talking a lot about.

They say that it's going to open somewhere between Friday and two weeks from then. We may not have the full amount of ships that have been going through since then. But that really has been, I think, the number one thing that they have been focused on. Yes, they have been talking about Iran's nuclear ambition, but they need that strait open to re -- not just reinvigorate the base here, but get those gas prices to where they need to be come November.

And so I think that you're going to see a lot of focus on that. And once that's open, they can figure out those other little pesky details.

Amy Walter:

Yes. Yes.

William Brangham:

I mean...

Amy Walter:

Yes, that sounds right because the number one concern, if you're up for reelection this year as a Republican, there was talk at one point of the straits being closed through Labor Day, which means as we go into the election season, we're looking at $4 and $5 gas prices. That is devastating

William Brangham:

Politically calamitous.

Amy Walter:

Absolutely. So if you're a Republican looking at an unpopular war and the potential for high gas prices into an election, the fact that the straits could open in two weeks or less is good news.

At the same time, it is not going to suddenly bring inflation back to a place where voters feel like the cost of living has been handled. And I think the challenge all along for Republicans this election is, the president seems more interested in his own agenda than in the issues that voters who sent him to Washington would like him to focus on, namely, the cost of living.

And so Iran is not a topic that was brought up during the 2024 campaign. They did not see the reason why we're there. And then the number of issues, some of which we're probably going to talk about tonight, but whether it is hosting a UFC fight, whether it is redecorating Washington, D.C., the ballroom, et cetera, that is still going to be part of the president's focus going forward.

And as long as he's still focusing on things outside the purview of what regular voters want to see done, the strait's reopening isn't going to solve all of the political problems for Republicans.

William Brangham:

Right.

What we just saw also breaking today, Jasmine, was Gavin Newsom coming out and saying, I'm under investigation by this Department of Justice, which he's arguing is being basically puppeteered by Donald Trump. How do you see that playing out?

Again, we should say we have no idea what the nature of this investigation is, how legitimate it is, where it comes from, if there are serious allegations behind it. How do you see that playing out?

Jasmine Wright:

Well, I think it's just what Amy said, which is that voters feel as though Trump is not focused on their concerns.

And a part of that has been this retribution campaign that he's been on and that his Department of Justice has been on, targeting folks who the president believes are either responsible for some of the legal issues that he faced over the last few years or at least added to the environment, or people he just, frankly, doesn't like.

The president has been talking about fraud in California for not just years, but really concentrated in the last two weeks since that primary election. Now, of course, we don't know any of the details, so we don't know if these are at all connected.

But Gavin Newsom has been a thorn in this president's side, has been somebody who the president believes is a fraudulent person, a person that shouldn't be in elective office. He's said the world's worst governor, I believe, multiple times.

And so, obviously, this is a moment in which Gavin Newsom is under the DOJ light, but the question is, is, who possibly comes next?

Amy Walter:

Yes, there was a time when a politician would not take to social media to tell folks that they are under investigation by the Department of Justice.

William Brangham:

Right, the feds are after me, hey, everybody.

Amy Walter:

I just wanted to let everybody know that I'm being investigated. That was something you didn't do.

But in this era now, if you are a Democrat being investigated by the Trump Department of Justice, that is a badge of honor, in the same way President Trump was able to rally his base, saying the Biden administration is coming after me.

So for Gavin Newsom, who just happened to drop in there, that maybe the president's coming after me because I'm running for president, it is yet another signal that Gavin Newsom is a likely 2028 candidate.

Jasmine Wright:

And I think this is just, what, the fourth person that's uploaded a video to Twitter/X saying that they are under investigation.

So, I mean, obviously, social media teams now have to think about that where they move forward.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

William Brangham:

It's a badge of honor for Democrats, it seems, as Amy is saying.

Amy Walter:

Yes. Yes.

William Brangham:

Jasmine Wright, Amy Walter, great to see you both.

Amy Walter:

Good to see you. Thank you.

Jasmine Wright:

Thank you.