The Federal Reserve will announce its third rate decision of 2026 on Wednesday, as officials confront rising inflation, a lackluster job market and what is likely to be Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair.

The overwhelming consensus among economists is that the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, will hold rates steady. On Tuesday, the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed a 100% probability that the Fed will keep its target rate within its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. 

That would mark a third consecutive pause for the Fed this year, with the central bank holding rates unchanged at both its January and March meetings as it assessed the economic impact of President Trump's tariffs and the fallout of the Iran war. The conflict has caused energy prices to skyrocket and pushed inflation to its highest level in almost two years.

"The FOMC is likely to reiterate its wait-and-see message at its April meeting this week because the war with Iran continues to cloud the economic outlook and to present risks to both inflation and activity," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in an April 26 research note.

Powell, meanwhile, is set to step down as Fed chair when his term concludes on May 15, capping an eight-year tenure as the leader of the central bank. He's expected to be replaced by Kevin Warsh, whose confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee was held last week. 

Warsh's path to succeed Powell has been smoothed by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro's announcement Friday that her office is ending a probe of Powell over the renovation of the Fed's Washington, D.C., headquarters. Powell had criticized the investigation as politically motivated, following President Trump's pressure on him to cut rates.

Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, initially said he would block Warsh's nomination until the Justice Department resolved its investigation into Powell over the renovation of the Fed's Washington, D.C., headquarters. On Sunday, Tillis said he is prepared to move forward with Warsh's nomination, now that the probe has ended.

"We expect Kevin Warsh to be confirmed in time for the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting," said EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco in an April 27 email.

Here's what to expect at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

What time is the Fed rate decision?

The Federal Open Market Committee, the 12-member voting body that sets rates, will announce its decision on the federal funds rate on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.

The announcement will be followed by a 2:30 p.m press conference led by Powell, where he will field questions about the economy and the Fed's outlook.

What will the Fed decide?

The Fed is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, according to economists polled by FactSet. The central bank last cut rates in December 2025. 

While a rate cut would lower borrowing rates for American consumers, it could also fuel inflation, something officials would want to avoid given that the war has already driven up prices. The Consumer Price Index jumped to 3.3% on an annual basis in March, the highest rate since May 2024 and well above the Fed's target rate of 2%.

In addition to taming inflation, the Fed's dual mandate requires it to keep the labor market at full employment. Rate cuts can help boost the labor market by making it cheaper for businesses to borrow and hire new workers. While the job market isn't particularly strong, it's not weak enough to convince the Fed to cut, experts noted. 

"The labor market is plugging along without much steam, but it's still plugging along," said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, in an email. "Though last month's jobs data indicated strong growth, the chances are good this month's will be significantly weaker. Employers aren't hiring much, but they aren't laying people off either. "

Will there be any rate cuts in 2026?

Many economists are penciling in one rate cut for later this year, either in September or December.

EY-Parthenon initially forecast two rate cuts but scaled it back to one amid a higher inflationary backdrop, according to Lydia Boussour, a senior economist at the consulting arm of Ernst & Young. EY-Parthenon predicts the cut will come in December.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said he doesn't think the central bank will cut rates at all this year. The deciding factor, he said, will be inflation expectations.

"They're stuck in place," he said of the central bank. "They don't know how to respond, in part, because of all it's all the uncertainty with how things are playing out."