Washington — The U.S. and some European nations appear to have dismissed a Russian warning for foreign nationals to evacuate Ukraine's capital ahead of increased strikes on the city. Analysts say the threat comes as battlefield momentum may be beginning to shift in Ukraine's favor.

Moscow threatened on Monday to "systematically strike at Ukrainian military-industrial complex enterprises in Kyiv" in retaliation for an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Friday that Russia claims hit a student dormitory in the occupied Luhansk region, killed at least 21 people and wounding 42. 

Russia calls Ukraine strike "the last straw"

Ukraine's military called Russia's characterization of the attack "manipulation," and said a drone command center was hit.

But in a statement issued by the foreign ministry, Russia called it "the last straw," and vowed to launch "a systematic series of strikes against Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities in Kyiv."

"Given that the above-mentioned facilities are scattered throughout Kyiv, we warn foreign citizens, including personnel of diplomatic missions and international organizations, to leave the city as soon as possible, and residents of the Ukrainian capital to avoid approaching military and administrative infrastructure facilities of the Zelenskyy regime," the ministry said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov delivered a warning for U.S. citizens to evacuate Kyiv directly to Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a phone call on Monday, the ministry said. A U.S. State Department spokesman confirmed the discussion, calling it an exchange of "views on the Russia-Ukraine war, bilateral relations, and the situation in Iran."

U.S. and Europeans shrug off Russian warning: "We are not going anywhere!"

A State Department spokesperson told CBS News there was "no higher priority than the safety and security of Americans," but added that the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv was making "no changes" to its security posture.

Germany, Poland, and the European Union also appeared to dismiss Moscow's warning.

"Calling on our embassy staff to leave Kyiv is doubling down on threats, terror & escalation," Germany's foreign office said, adding that it had summoned the Russian ambassador in Berlin and made clear "that we will not be intimidated by threats and will continue to support Ukraine."

Poland's foreign affairs ministry said it continued to "regard all attacks on Ukraine, including those against civilian facilities and populations, as acts of unjustified aggression resulting in enormous human losses and infrastructural damage" and "any strike on Poland's diplomatic missions will therefore be considered deliberate and intentional."

Russia "again threatens diplomats & foreigners, urging us to leave Kyiv," said EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Mathernova. "But we are not going anywhere! Russia wants fear. Panic. Isolation of Ukraine. It will not work."

Russia had issued similar threats in recent months, warning diplomats to leave Kyiv, but Monday's was the most direct, and it came after a number of significant aerial attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks.

"Character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces"

Russia hit Ukraine with a large wave of airstrikes on May 14 and 15, launching more than 1,500 drones and over 50 missiles. On May 23, Russia deployed its Oreshnik hypersonic missile in another assault that killed at least two people and wounded 83 in Kyiv and the surrounding area. 

Analysts say the escalation by Moscow comes amid signs that Ukraine is regaining momentum on the battlefield. In a May 25 report, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War think tank said "the character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces, at least for now." 

Since late 2023, battlefield progress has been slow, with neither side able to make major advances along a front line that stretches for over 700 miles right across eastern Ukraine. Russia had, however, claimed regular small advances since then. The ISW report argues that Ukraine is starting to break the stalemate, and may be poised to turn the tide.

"Ukraine is actively challenging the positional character of the war that has dominated the battlefield since 2023," the group said. "Russian battlefield gains are approaching net zero, while Ukrainian forces are setting conditions potentially to break out of positional warfare by reintroducing limited elements of mechanized maneuver at the tactical level."

While analysts see signs of progress on the battlefield, however, Russia continues to exploit Ukraine's shortages in air defense munitions by stepping up its aerial bombardment. 

"We are working with all our partners on air defense for Ukraine — this is the first priority," President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a social media post after Russia's May 25 attack. "Anti-ballistic capabilities are now in short supply globally because of the war with Iran, but we must look for solutions."