We're now in the second quarter of 2026 and the year has already been unpredictable when it comes to mortgage interest rates. After nearly four months, some rate predictions may need to be recast. If you were house-hunting in February, mortgage rates felt like they were back on track. The average 30-year rate was 5.87%, and qualified borrowers were landing rates close to 5%. For many buyers who'd been sidelined for years, the sub-6% rates seemed like the first real relief. 

Then it closed. The war with Iran spurred inflation fears and drove up mortgage rates. The 30-year average climbed to 6.37% by March 23, more than half a percentage point above the February mark.

As of April 27, rates have pulled back. Zillow's average 30-year is now 6%, still above the mid-February level, but well below March's peak. The recent decline comes as ceasefire talks in the Iran war have calmed the bond market and pulled the 10-year Treasury yield, the main driver of mortgage rates, back down.

"The lesson from this spring is that affordability gains are fragile," says Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality. "Rates can give back weeks of improvement in a matter of days if risk sentiment shifts."

So where do rates head from here? We asked some experts for their thoughts on where mortgage rates could head this May, which we'll break down below.

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What's the mortgage interest rate forecast for May 2026?

Predicting future mortgage interest rate moves is difficult to do with precision. According to the experts we spoke with, here are three scenarios that could occur this May that could leave rates steady, or cause them to fall or rise:

Mortgage rates could remain steady in May

Mortgage rates should remain steady in May, with expert forecasts generally in the low-to-mid 6% range by the end of the month. They expect rates to stay relatively steady, but also see paths for rates to move slightly higher or lower. Projections could change fast, however, if peace progress in the Middle East stalls or inflation numbers come in higher than expected.

There's no Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for the month, and the late-April Fed decision is already priced into current mortgage rates. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability the Fed will leave rates unchanged. That leaves inflation data and the ongoing Iran ceasefire talks as the primary forces that could impact the 10-year Treasury yield, and in turn, mortgage rates.

"My forecast for May is that rates will remain range-bound with a slight downward bias, likely fluctuating between 6.2% and 6.4%. However, I believe that rate volatility will persist," says Hepp, who notes that belief depends on two market realities. First, if the ceasefire holds, pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield could continue to ease. Second, new inflation and jobs reports could push yields and mortgage rates higher or lower, depending on the data.

Sarah DeFlorio, vice president of mortgage banking at William Raveis Mortgage, sees the 30-year average landing in a similar range between 6.125% and 6.25% by the end of May. "My hope is that during May 2026, we will experience another period of stability, slowly declining rates. Sadly, we know from experience it's never a straight line down," she says.

Jordan Del Palacio, loan partner at Churchill Mortgage, says rates could hold or climb in May, given the current rate environment. "Even on good days, there is a cautiousness built into the rate environment, and we won't see rates come back down until there is more certainty about a resolution" in the Iran conflict, he says. "If I had to look into my crystal ball, I would probably estimate that the average 30-year mortgage rate will be around 6.50% by the end of May."

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Why mortgage rates could fall in May

While they expect rates to hold steady, both Hepp and DeFlorio allow for a slight drop if the ceasefire holds and Treasury yields continue to fall. "If and when the end of the conflict in Iran is announced, I think we will see an immediate dip in rates," DeFlorio says.

For declines to be significant, though, bond yields must remain under 4%. "We will need to see a sustained period in which the 10-year Treasury yield is below 4% before rates start to decline meaningfully again."

New economic data could also help to lower rates. "A cooler jobs report, specifically a rise in the unemployment rate toward 4.5% or lower-than-expected wage growth, would signal to the bond market to push yields lower," Hepp says.

Why mortgage rates could rise in May

Del Palacio sees "rates either staying flat or ticking up slightly," with the Iran conflict raising oil prices and fueling inflation across the economy. He says rates won't come down until there's more certainty about how the conflict resolves.

"As the cost of crude fell and it appeared there were building blocks of an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz, rates declined. With the latest break in the ceasefire, the cost has increased about 8% from the recent low, and mortgage rates have increased in tandem," he says.

Hepp also warns rates could rise if the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows inflation is still higher than expected, oil prices jump again or the ceasefire falls apart. "That could lead to another bond spike. If the 10-year Treasury breaks back above 4.50%, the 30-year mortgage rate will head straight back toward 6.75% or higher, effectively ending the spring homebuying momentum," she says.

The bottom line

Regardless of what happens with mortgage rates this May, there are ways to improve your chances of getting a better deal. Shop and compare at least three lenders to find the best available rate and terms.

If you're concerned about rising rates, consider prequalifying and locking a rate now. Lenders often offer rate locks, typically for 30, 45 or 60 days, which can protect you from rate hikes while you hunt for a home. Even better, ask your lender if they offer a float-down option, which lets you lock your rate now and potentially lower it later if rates fall before closing.