A campaign to rescue Bay Area public transit from financial ruin and service cuts submitted 305,895 signatures to election authorities Tuesday, virtually guaranteeing that the measure will qualify for the November ballot.

The Connect Bay Area campaign supports a regional sales tax measure across Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties that would raise nearly $1 billion annually to fund transit agencies. Roughly 1,000 of the signature gatherers were volunteers, along with hundreds of paid gatherers, a campaign official said.

“I think that really speaks to just how many people are fired up about this issue,” said Cyrus Hall, who coordinated the signature-gathering effort.

The stakes are high. BART faces a roughly $350 million operating deficit starting in July. The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency, which runs Muni, is staring down a $307 million shortfall that could balloon to $434 million within five years. Caltrain has warned it could shut down entirely by 2029 without new revenue. 

Ridership, which heavily funds operations for BART and Muni, hasn’t fully recovered from the pandemic. BART has historically relied on weekday commuters, and with remote work seemingly here to stay, weekday ridership in March was about 49% of 2019 levels — though weekend ridership has recovered to 87% of those levels. Muni’s weekend ridership has fully bounced back to pre-pandemic levels, but weekday ridership is at 80% of 2019 levels.

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The regional sales tax campaign launched in January and mobilized an army of signature gatherers at transit stations, farmers markets, community events, and neighborhood meetings.

If passed by voters in November, the measure would impose a 0.5% regional sales tax — set at 1% in San Francisco to provide additional support for Muni — to fund long-term operations for BART, Muni, Caltrain, SamTrans, VTA and AC Transit, and support regional projects to better connect the systems. San Franciscans will also vote on a parcel tax to provide another $183 million annually for Muni.

Without a stable revenue source, BART has warned it could close up to 15 stations, end service at 9 p.m., and eliminate two lines, cutting service by as much as 70%. If either measure fails, Muni would slash service as soon as September 2027 — ending regular service at 9 p.m., culling lower-ridership routes, and running fewer buses on lines that survive the cuts. 

Caltrain has threatened to run trains only hourly, with no weekend service. AC Transit could cut service by at least 16%. And for Peninsula commuters, losing Caltrain would add an estimated 36,000 car trips and 220 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions to Bay Area roads and air daily, the agency projects.

A November poll from the Metropolitan Transportation Commission found that 58% of voters supported the regional measure, up from 47% two years earlier — a sign that the fear campaign mounted by transit agencies over the past year may be working. But the regional measure must win a majority, and political analysts have flagged Contra Costa as the most challenging electorate to win over.

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The regional campaign has drawn backing from more than 80 elected officials and more than 90 labor groups and advocacy organizations. It’s also raised more than $5.5 million from major regional businesses, including Uber. The 300,000 signatures will now be counted and validated by elections departments in each of the five counties. At least 186,000 valid signatures are required to place the measure on the ballot.

Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said the number of votes needed for the measure to pass.