In all likelihood, there is a greater chance of hell freezing over than there is of Republican Steve Hilton beating Democrat Xavier Becerra to become California’s next governor. 

But crazier things have happened.

That doesn’t mean the race won’t be worth watching. And for that, California voters can thank, or blame, Steve Hilton. 

As a former Fox News host and adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, Hilton is equal parts political strategist and showman. He is charismatic and steeped in detail, known as much for his policy chops as for quirky tendencies like using a flip phone and walking around 10 Downing St. in socks and a T-shirt. 

Political experts across the ideological spectrum agree that Hilton’s alliance with President Donald Trump renders him effectively radioactive in deep-blue California, a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 and there hasn’t been a Republican governor in two decades. But Hilton’s supporters argue that his platform speaks directly to Californians who’ve grown exasperated by Democratic dominance in Sacramento and are fed up with skyrocketing housing costs, an affordability crisis, and a homelessness problem that shows no signs of abating. 

And even if Hilton can’t close the gap with Becerra, Republicans are betting that his presence on the ticket will drive GOP turnout in down-ballot races that could quietly reshape the balance of power in the state — making him, in a sense, a winner even if he loses.

Observers across the political divide acknowledge that Hilton is a more captivating candidate than Becerra, a former Health and Human Services secretary, state attorney general, congressman, and Assembly member known for his lawyerly, deliberative, and, some might say, boring personality. (opens in new tab) Hilton’s firecracker energy, assured debating skills, and confident public speaking set him apart from Becerra, according to Dan Schnur, who teaches political communications at UC Berkeley and the University of Southern California. Schnur describes Becerra, meanwhile, as “the Joe Biden of 2026.”

Democratic consultant Roger Salazar said Hilton grasps the value of political theater, much like former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger or even failed Los Angeles mayoral candidate and reality star Spencer Pratt (opens in new tab).

“He’s a guy who understands publicity, and he’s got nothing to lose in terms of being a bomb-thrower in this race,” Salazar said of Hilton. “It’ll be entertaining.” 

Having Hilton in the race will “make things spicier,” added Elizabeth Ashford, a Democratic consultant who worked for former Gov. Jerry Brown, as well as Schwarzenegger, California’s last Republican governor. 

“From a messaging point of view, he’ll be able to deliver these sound bites and discuss things in a way to make for a sharper race,” she said. 

Hilton, who established a think tank that formed the basis of his primary campaign, leans into policy issues and will be able to “go toe-to-toe” in a debate on a range of critical issues, from water and land-use policy to housing issues and the insurance crisis, said anti-Trump Republican strategist Mike Madrid, who supported Becerra. 

“There is something substantive there,” Madrid said.

Hilton’s success hinges on capturing every Republican vote, plus a significant portion of California’s more than 5 million “no-party preference” voters, as well as some moderate Democrats who are sick of the status quo in Sacramento and are looking for someone to shake things up. 

“A fair assessment of [Becerra] would be he is the living embodiment of ‘more of the same,’” Hilton said in an interview this month. 

“People look at California and say, ‘It’s impossible for a Republican to win,’” he added. “My view is, it’s impossible for a Democrat to win.”

There is evidence to support Hilton’s assertion. More than half of likely voters think the state is headed in the wrong direction (opens in new tab), according to a Public Policy Institute of California survey of more than 1,700 residents. Forty-four percent said the state’s high cost of living is a critical issue, and 76% said they anticipate tough economic times ahead.

But is Hilton the change agent voters want to reset the state government?

Maybe if he were a Democrat, said Schnur, who was a spokesperson for former Republican Gov. Pete Wilson, or even an independent. 

• Hilton advances to November governor’s race to face Becerra

• Xavier Becerra wins June primary, will likely face off against Steve Hilton in November

“The Republican brand in California has become toxic,” Schnur said. “He’s saying the exact right things, he’s touching all the right buttons, but there is literally and figuratively an elephant sitting in his pathway.” 

It would be difficult for any GOP candidate to win statewide office in California, where Democrats maintain supermajority control of both chambers of the Capitol.

And Hilton is not only a Republican but a MAGA acolyte (opens in new tab) running for governor of a majority Latino state (opens in new tab) that is staunchly opposed to Trump’s anti-immigrant agenda. 

“The Republican Party in California can do all the magical thinking it wants, but the fact is that they have not kept abreast of the electorate,” Ashford said. “They are talking in terms and pursuing policies that are abhorrent to the very populations they should be trying to reach.” 

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With more than four months before Election Day, Becerra holds a commanding lead. In a survey conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies before the primary, 52% of more than 8,500 registered voters said they supported Becerra (opens in new tab), versus 31% who favored Hilton and 17% who were undecided. 

Hilton trails Becerra not just in major Democratic strongholds like San Francisco and Los Angeles but in purple parts of the state like the Central Valley, Orange County, and the Inland Empire. 

Sixty-nine percent of those surveyed said they disapprove of Trump, a clear sign that his endorsement is unlikely to boost support for Hilton. “He’s a registered Republican in a state where Republicans usually get about 35% to 40% of the vote,” said Democratic strategist Garry South, who managed Gov. Gray Davis’ 1998 and 2002 campaigns. “And the kiss of death is that he was endorsed by Donald Trump.”

So far, Hilton has shown no interest in tacking to the political center and distancing himself from Trump as a way to bolster his odds in November. 

“It’s an honor and privilege to have the support of the president,” Hilton wrote in a June 10 social media post thanking Trump (opens in new tab). “As your next governor, I look forward to working with the federal government, to turn our beautiful state around and restore the California Dream.” 

While Hilton pitches himself as the change agent, some experts argue that Becerra’s success is proof that voters want business as usual. 

It wasn’t that long ago that state Democratic Party officials called on Becerra, who was polling in the single digits for much of the race, to drop out of the contest in order to avoid two Republicans advancing to November. At the time, former East Bay Rep. Eric Swalwell was expected to be California’s next governor after taking the lead among Democrats and racking up endorsements from the state’s leading unions, healthcare groups, and powerful political figures. 

But after Swalwell’s campaign imploded amid allegations of sexual assault (opens in new tab), Becerra took off in the polls. He quickly earned support from state and congressional lawmakers, and both his campaign and an independent expenditure committee backing his bid received a flood of cash from special-interest groups, a sign that Sacramento insiders increasingly perceived him as the “safe” establishment choice.

“Becerra is where he is because he represents the status quo,” Schnur said. “Eric Swalwell was a near-death political experience for California Democrats. And he reminded Democrats that there are real benefits in nominating someone safe and traditional and reassuring.”

Others see Becerra, who would be the state’s first elected Latino governor, as a sign of a new era.

For decades, California’s political power was concentrated in the Bay Area, which gave rise to Democratic Party stars (opens in new tab) like Gov. Gavin Newsom, Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, former San Francisco Mayor and Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, and Sens. Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer. 

In recent years, that power center has migrated south to Los Angeles, home to Sens. Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff and the city Becerra represented in Congress.

If elected, Becerra would join a growing rank of powerful Latino leaders, including Padilla, Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Hollister), and state Senate President Pro Tem Monique Limón (D-Goleta). 

“The Democratic-base voter wants more East L.A. and less East Bay,” Madrid said. “They are looking for blue-collar, working-class relatability.” 

Voters are motivated to support Becerra because his election would be “historic,” South added. 

“Gray Davis was not historic, and Jerry Brown was not historic, and neither was Gavin Newsom. But Becerra is a historic figure in California history,” South said. “I think that adds to the appeal involving this run-off against a kind of quirky white guy from Great Britain with a British accent.”

Hilton may not win the keys to the governor’s mansion, but Republicans still expect to notch some wins in November. 

Republicans are behind an initiative on the November ballot to require voters to show identification (opens in new tab), while anti-tax advocates and business groups are pushing a measure to limit real estate transfer taxes and make it harder for local jurisdictions to raise taxes. The California Billionaire Tax is also expected to generate enthusiasm at the ballot box among conservative voters. 

A high GOP turnout would in theory help embattled Republicans running in newly competitive House contests after Proposition 50, Newsom’s retaliatory mid-decade redistricting measure, which voters approved in November. 

Having a Republican — and one endorsed by Trump — at the top of the ticket will drive GOP turnout and make it easier for the party’s candidates and causes to be successful. 

“Hilton’s candidacy is very, very important for thousands of Republicans running down-ticket,” Republican strategist Jon Fleischman said. “That’s going to matter in races for Congress, state Senate, Assembly, and school board.” 

As for whether that drive will help Hilton, Fleischman said, “hope springs eternal.”