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An Emerson College survey conducted Tuesday and Wednesday shows a surge in support for Becerra, the former U.S. secretary of health and human services, compared with previous polling in which he struggled to stand out.
It’s the first publicly revealed poll since Swalwell’s scandal emerged last week, providing an early look at where voters who backed the ex-congressman have shifted.
The poll of 1,000 Californians, commissioned by Inside California Politics and the Nexstar Media Group, (opens in new tab) found Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco still leading the race, at 17% and 14%, respectively, and Tom Steyer leading Democrats, at 14%. Democratic candidates Katie Porter and Becerra both netted 10%.
While Becerra still doesn’t lead, his support changed more than any other Democrat, jumping from a lethargic 3% in Emerson’s last data from March. That demonstrates “real momentum,” said Sam Lauter, a principal at public affairs and political consulting firm BMWL.
‘The growth that Becerra shows is actually quite impressive,” Lauter said.
The poll shows little movement for Steyer or Porter. “After all the spending they’ve done for so long, I’d be concerned if I were them,” Lauter said.
Swalwell was a marginal front-runner in the governor’s race before he bowed out in disgrace Sunday, following allegations that he sexually assaulted women. Swalwell’s departure threatened to upend a crowded gubernatorial race with a nearly even split of support among Democrats, leading to growing fears that two Republicans would emerge from the open primary in June.
Pollster Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., said that worry hasn’t gone away. Becerra is catching tailwinds, but the fallout has created a “very fluid” situation, he said, and future polls could show gains for other candidates.
“I think there’s a lot of reasons for Democrats to be concerned,” he said. “The Swalwell exit hasn’t redounded to one candidate.”
But, Mitchell said, it’s clear that Californians are finally tuning in to the race for governor.
“It’s like the Real Housewives,” he said. “Seven episodes in, someone flips a table (opens in new tab), and everyone’s suddenly paying attention.”
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