Nobody talks about conspiracy theories when they don’t come to pass. 

For weeks, folks around the league mused about how the Warriors were destined to climb into the top-four of the NBA Draft Lottery. It all made too much sense. The NBA has incentive to tip the scales and breathe some life into a defining modern team, in a massive media market, with superstar Steph Curry still among the most popular active players. Add Steve Kerr’s decision to stay with the Warriors a day before the lottery — could Adam Silver have secretly given him a wink and a nod that his return would come with some ping-pong ball luck? 

But no. The Warriors had a 90% chance at either staying at No. 11 or dropping to No. 12, and they ended up sticking in place. Even after last year’s stunner that led to the Mavericks winning the top pick, there are no frozen envelopes in the ping-pong ball era. 

The Warriors will pick 11th in next month’s NBA Draft. Washington, one of the teams that shamelessly tanked the 2025-26 season, will have the first choice. The Kings dropped from the fifth best odds to seventh, and the Clippers officially reaped the benefits of their midseason Ivica Zubac trade by winning Indiana’s pick at No. 5.

This is regarded as a loaded, deep draft class. It’s highlighted by top prospects AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, and Darryn Peterson, but has talent sprinkled throughout the lottery. 

Warriors GM Mike Dunleavy has a strong track record in the draft, and now will get the chance to take his biggest crack yet. 

Adding a rookie who’s ready to contribute right away is the path of least resistance to upgrading Golden State’s roster. But it’s also worth noting that the team could consider packaging the pick — along with other assets — in a trade for a proven star.

Barring that option, here are five prospects worthy of a look in the late lottery range. 

A coveted prep star, Ament had an up-and-down freshman year at Tennessee. The 6-foot-10 forward didn’t always use his size to his advantage defensively and could occasionally float within games. 

But Ament’s upside could be as high as anyone’s outside the top-four. He’s versatile and handles like a guard, and if his poor shooting season with the Vols was a blip instead of the norm, he has the potential to be a matchup nightmare. Do the Warriors have the appetite to stomach another project? 

With perhaps the tightest handle in the class and a fearlessness in the paint, Philon has the tools to overcome his relative size disadvantage (6-foot-4 with a 6-foot-6 wingspan). He was an offensive machine in the tough SEC last year as a sophomore, averaging 22 points and five assists while shooting 50% from the field and 40% from deep. 

Just take a look at his offensive advanced metrics, via Draftballr (opens in new tab). 

The Warriors, and especially Kerr, have been enamored of experienced college players who understand how to impact winning without a steep learning curve. The preference is as close to a holistic strategy as the Warriors can point to. 

Lendeborg fits the bill. He spent six years in college, walking off by leading Michigan to a national championship. The point forward will enter his rookie season at age 24. 

He can do a little bit of everything, which could be considered a pro or con. Is he versatile or will his jack-of-all-trades act be less effective in the NBA if he doesn’t have a singular skill to separate himself? 

Lendeborg’s teammate, Mara is a bit of a different prospect because he has more delineated skills and weaknesses. It’d be shocking if his rim protection and rebounding didn’t translate to the NBA level. He also has good hands, which makes him a true lob threat. 

But the faster, spacier NBA game could make it harder for Mara to play big minutes. 

Recent players with similar profiles, Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey, have figured it out to varying degrees. Even in the modern era, there’s still a lot of value in low-volume seven-footers. 

One of the bigger mystery boxes of the draft, Lopez has elite upside. He’s 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and flashed star potential in the NBL — a rising league that has recently produced LaMelo Ball and Dyson Daniels. 

The jump shot and overall offensive refinement are question marks at the moment, but Lopez’s explosive athleticism and high motor make him an enticing defensive prospect. 

Dunleavy and assistant GM Larry Harris took a scouting trip to New Zealand last February. They didn’t know where they’d be picking then, and it’s still unclear exactly where Lopez might go.

But it’s hard to watch Lopez’s highlights and not get excited.