Grab your pitchforks. Fire up those X posts. The fight over the California billionaire tax has officially begun.

Organizers for the controversial ballot initiative, the Billionaire Tax Act, announced Sunday that they have enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot and will begin sending them to county elections officials for verification. 

In the days since, organizers for two competing initiatives, which would essentially nullify the tax if passed, announced that they too had collected enough signatures to proceed, setting up the battle lines for what promises to be a monumental — and costly — fight over what the super-rich owe the Golden State.

“There is no way to accurately predict how much money would be spent to defeat this initiative,” said UC Berkeley political science lecturer Dan Schnur. “Take the most ridiculous, outlandish dollar figure you can imagine, and then triple it.”

The measure, which would levy a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of California billionaires, is one of the most talked-about issues of the election cycle. National figures like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna have spoken out in support of the initiative, while billionaires, including Google cofounders Larry Page and Sergey Brin and former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick, have reportedly severed ties the state over it. 

Brin and a cadre of other tech donors, including former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, Ripple CEO Chris Larsen, and former Sequoia Capital investor Michael Moritz, chairman of The Standard, have poured millions into a new political organization called Building a Better California, which is funding a number of competing ballot initiatives that would override the tax act if passed.

In recent weeks, supporters of the billionaire tax and the counter initiatives have been sprinting to gather the 874,641 signatures needed to qualify for the ballot, paying signature gatherers as much as $15 per name. In a case that is under review by the California secretary of state, signature gatherers for a Building a Better California initiative were caught on video in the Tenderloin offering $5 to anyone willing to sign. (Reps for the organization said the signature gatherers were hired by a subcontractor, and any bad signatures will be tossed out.) 

• Sorry, Silicon Valley, it isn’t that easy to buy an election

On Sunday, the Billionaire Tax Act campaign announced that it plans to file to elections officials more than 1.5 million signatures in support of the initiative. Backers of a competing initiative known as the Transparency Act announced the next day that they too would begin submitting signatures. On Tuesday, backers of another rival initiative, the Retirement and Personal Savings Protection Act, announced that they had gathered 1.4 million signatures.

Sponsors of another measure, the Protect Schools and Taxpayers Act, told The Standard they would turn their attention to the 2028 ballot after struggling to get enough signatures this year.

“We remain committed to ensuring voters have the chance to protect schools and taxpayers from being shortchanged by special-interest money grabs,” campaign spokesperson Evan Westrup said. “To that end, we intend to continue collecting signatures in the months ahead to qualify for the 2028 ballot.”

Backers of the two counter initiatives that are moving forward say the measures serve vital purposes beyond counteracting the billionaire tax. The Transparency Act would require pre-election audits of any program set to receive funds from a special tax initiative such as the billionaire tax; proponents say this would give taxpayers more insight into how their money is being spent. The Retirement and Personal Savings Protection Act would prohibit taxes on a rash of personal savings accounts, including retirement savings, which backers are billing as a positive for everyday Californians.

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But both initiatives would also nullify the billionaire tax if they receive more votes in November — and wealthy locals are spending heavily to back them. In the last month alone, Building a Better California gave more than $7 million to each of the measure’s campaign committees. Brin poured $9 million into his organization April 10.

The California Business Roundtable, which has received donations in recent months from billionaires like Peter Thiel, also promised a fight.

“The California Business Roundtable and a broad and bipartisan coalition in California are organized and ready to defeat this initiative in November,” President Rob Lapsley said in a statement. “We will ensure Californians understand the truth on the devastating consequences this initiative will have.”

Significantly out-funded by its opponents, the union-backed billionaire tax coalition will likely have to lean on its popular support come November. (A Politico poll (opens in new tab) last month found that half of registered voters supported it.) But there is one way supporters could avoid an all-out battle brawl up to November. 

Under a 2014 California law, initiatives can be removed from the ballot up until June 25, giving the legislature a little under two months to propose a legislative compromise that could satisfy the Billionaire Tax Act’s sponsor, SEIU-UHW. If the union agrees to the legislation, it will drop the initiative, and the compromise bill will become law — a faster and altogether less bruising process, if a less satisfying one.

Schnur, the political science professor, believes Gov. Gavin Newsom — who has come out against the tax act — has every incentive to help work out a legislative compromise. 

“Newsom has always been very adroit and balancing between Democratic progressives and the party establishment,” Schnur said. “Now, just before he begins a potential presidential campaign, he has to take a side on a ballot initiative that almost defines the ideological differences between the party base and its centrist wing.”

He added: “If he can find a way to craft a legislative compromise, that allows him to avoid that fight.”

In a statement to The Standard, SEIU-UHW Chief of Staff Suzanne Jimenez appeared to signal some openness to a compromise, “welcome[s] any and all policy actions that try to get the ultra-wealthy to meaningfully contribute to our state’s needs.”

However, she added: “Right now, our focus is ensuring that voters have the right to vote YES this November to ensure billionaires pay their fair share to keep our hospitals, ERs, and nursing homes open.”