For the longest time, California’s 2026 governor’s race struggled to capture the attention of Democratic voters. With Kamala Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla deciding to sit out, the field was left to a fragmented roster of lesser-known Democrats who failed to generate much excitement.
But that changed dramatically Friday when The San Francisco Chronicle published (opens in new tab) allegations by an anonymous former staffer for Rep. Eric Swalwell, a candidate for California governor, claiming that her boss had twice sexually assaulted her at a time when she was too intoxicated to consent. The woman worked for Swalwell between 2019 and 2021. Swalwell, who is married and has three children, sent photos of his genitals to the younger staffer on Snapchat and pursued her sexually, the report alleges.
Swalwell told The Chronicle: “These allegations are false and come on the eve of an election against the frontrunner for governor.”
In response to the claims, Swalwell’s attorney sent a cease-and-desist to the accuser’s lawyer and raised the possibility of a defamation suit, according to The Chronicle.
The revelations come after weeks of speculation spread across social media (opens in new tab) and cable news suggesting that Swalwell, the leading Democratic candidate, was about to face allegations from former staffers of improper conduct.
The revelations are likely to reshape a race that was already finely balanced. Experts suggest that candidates Katie Porter and Tom Steyer stand to gain most directly from any collapse in Swalwell’s support — through a redistribution of votes, labor endorsements, and donor money — while Republicans, particularly Steve Hilton, may benefit from a Democratic field thrown into disarray at a critical moment in the campaign.
Porter had spoken up earlier this week about rumored allegations, which could carry weight with some voters.
“The Democrats take harassment allegations more seriously than Republicans, and women more than men,” said
Christian Grose, professor of public policy at USC
. “If you think of Democratic women voters, this can really hurt a Democratic candidate.”
Prediction markets, which have become leading indicators of where a race may be heading, had already begun to reflect improved prospects for both Steyer, a Democrat, and Hilton. Kim Nalder, professor of political science at Sacramento State, who tracks those markets, noted a significant swing since the allegations began to get traction this week.
“It shows that people who are watching and putting their money on it are taking these allegations seriously and thinking they are damaging,” she said.
On Kalshi, a prediction market where traders stake money on electoral outcomes, the shifts have been dramatic. On April 4, Swalwell led the field with a 67% implied probability of advancing from the primary — a figure that reflected his status as the clear Democratic front-runner.
Within minutes of Friday’s report, his probability had collapsed to 17%. Hilton, meanwhile, rose from 59% to 82%, while Steyer climbed from 26% to 60%, suggesting that markets see him as the primary beneficiary of Swalwell’s weakness. (These contract prices, effectively old-school betting odds, reflect what traders collectively believe the likelihood of each outcome to be.)
If Swalwell’s polling numbers collapse (in line with the prediction markets), which of the remaining candidates are likely to benefit? Eric Schickler, co-director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley, suggests that while the race remains unpredictable, Porter and Steyer are in the strongest position to capitalize on any drop in support for Swalwell.
“All three of them are essentially mainstream liberal progressive Democrats,” Schickler notes. “The logical thing would be for one of them to benefit.”
However, if one of the competing campaigns is seen to have effectively driven the allegations into the public domain, there might be unintended consequences. One seasoned political strategist, speaking anonymously, told The Standard: “We’re in really crazy territory here. We know these stories aren’t coming organically. They are coming from the other campaigns. If a connection is drawn to one of those other campaigns … that could also hurt them.”
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The race’s peculiar dynamics make any fallout hard to predict. But the volatility arrives at a moment of maximum peril for the Democratic Party. Recent polling from the California Democratic Party shows two Republicans — Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — in the lead, tied at 14%.
Meanwhile, the Democratic vote is atomized across more than a dozen candidates, with Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer routinely polling between 10% and 12%. That a candidate with Swalwell’s national profile and significant labor backing has struggled to decisively break away from a crowded field speaks to the broader problem: There is no compelling Democratic figure in this race.
As Schickler put it, California has “an awful lot of credible candidates, but none of them just stand out above the rest — and that’s just not a good combination in a top-two state.” (The top two vote-getters in the June primary advance to November’s general election, irrespective of party.)
The fallout will likely go beyond votes and polling figures, since money and endorsements committed to Swalwell are likely to be in play given the seriousness of the accusations against him. Endorsements are one of the key factors, said Nalder: “Labor endorsements in California often make the difference in a primary — especially public employee unions.”
Rob Stutzman, a veteran Republican strategist, said he recently asked an unnamed labor leader what would happen to Swalwell’s labor endorsements if damaging revelations were to surface. The answer was unambiguous: If Swalwell collapses, “you move on to the next candidate” — and that candidate, in the labor leader’s assessment, would be Porter.
Steyer, meanwhile, has a different advantage: money. While rivals spend considerable time on fundraising calls, Steyer’s self-funded campaign has been blanketing the airwaves, building name recognition in a field where most voters still can’t identify the players.
“He’s the only one who has the resources to communicate and run a real campaign,” said Steven Maviglio, a Democratic consultant.
That financial firepower means Steyer is uniquely placed to amplify the Swalwell story directly to voters, should he choose to do so.
The Republican dimension adds another layer of complexity. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Hilton has effectively consolidated the GOP vote, making him the near-certain Republican finalist.
The more fragmented the Democratic vote becomes, the more the door opens, at least slightly, for a Democratic shutout in the top two.
Schickler acknowledged the possibility directly: “If Swalwell’s support were to fragment among the other candidates four or five ways, that opens the door a crack for Bianco — and a Democratic shutout, which I think is much less likely with Trump endorsing Hilton but wouldn’t be out of the question.”
Grose sees a significantly weakened Swalwell, combined with Democrats continuing to split the vote, making a two-Republican outcome “possible,” he added.
For now, however, most analysts believe that a Trump-endorsed Hilton would face an insurmountable headwind in a general election against any credible Democrat, especially in what is shaping up as a strong Democratic year nationally.
What is clear is that a race that has lacked oxygen since its inception has suddenly had an injection of attention. In some cases, unwelcome attention.
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