The Warriors’ disqualification from the playoffs earned them an invitation to the NBA Draft lottery. 

It’s not quite a silver lining, but a feature of a system designed to help weak teams improve. 

Golden State, with the 11th-worst record in the league, has a 9.4% chance at rising into the top four and a 2% chance at the No. 1 pick. If the ping-pong balls don’t catapult the Warriors into the top four, they’ll most likely make the 11th selection but could technically drop as far as 14th. 

This draft class is so stacked that about a third of NBA teams approached the season with the lottery in mind. Tanking was such an ugly blemish on the product this season that the league is seriously considering reforming the lottery format. (opens in new tab)  

The Warriors didn’t tank, but injuries to Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, and Steph Curry landed them in the lottery anyway. This represents a chance to fan some oxygen on the embers of their dynasty’s fire. 

Assistant general manager Larry Harris, who won the lottery with the Bucks in 2005, will represent the Warriors in the ping-pong ball room with the hopes of landing a top pick.

“Whatever prayers, whatever luck charms you have — hey, Klay Thompson was 11,” Harris said. “We’ve been 11 a few times. Dallas was 11 last year. And I think Atlanta was 10 the year before. So, within the realm of possibility.”

The Warriors haven’t picked in the lottery since 2021, when they drafted Jonathan Kuminga (seventh) and Moses Moody (14th). Since then, Golden State won the 2022 title, got bounced from a pair of second-round series, and missed the playoffs twice. They picked up Butler at the 2025 trade deadline and were among the NBA’s best teams before he suffered his season-ending ACL tear in January. 

GM Mike Dunleavy has nonetheless made the most of his selections. In Dunleavy’s first draft as lead decision-maker, the Warriors stole Brandin Podziemski with the 19th pick; the guard is fourth in his class in win shares. There wasn’t anyone drafted after him who has a case as a more valuable player. 

Dunleavy also cashed in late second-rounders on rotation players like Trayce Jackson-Davis (57th in 2023), Quinten Post (52nd in 2024), and Will Richard (56th in 2025). Picks in the 50s rarely make a meaningful NBA impact, so getting anything out of those prospects, as the Warriors have, is a feat in scouting. 

No matter how the ping-pong balls fall, Dunleavy will be in position to make the highest selection of his tenure. 

Last year, the Mavericks had similar lottery odds to the Warriors and ended up winning the first overall pick: Cooper Flagg. Many in NBA circles have predicted that the league will reward the Warriors in a similar fashion, but there is no hard evidence of the league conspiring to manipulate the lottery (and any intervention would rank among the biggest scandals in pro sports history).  

Even without tomfoolery, a 9.4% chance at a top pick is nothing to scoff at. 

If the Warriors vault into the top four, they’ll do so in a draft that potentially has four franchise-changing players. 

BYU wing AJ Dybantsa is trending toward being the No. 1 overall pick, though that could change based on who wins the lottery. Strange injury concerns popped up for Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, but he might have the highest ceiling of any recent backcourt prospect. Duke forward Cameron Boozer, 18, put up one of the best statistical freshman seasons ever. Caleb Wilson flashed freaky athleticism and motor at the forward position for North Carolina. 

Beyond those freshmen, dynamic scorer Darius Acuff, rangy creator Keaton Wagler, and efficient guard Kingston Flemings could earn themselves consideration with strong pre-draft workouts and interviews. 

The Warriors’ biggest needs are on the wing and in the athleticism department, especially with Butler and Moody expected to miss roughly half the season. But the Warriors aren’t in a sport to draft for positional need. At this stage in their roster cycle, they should take whichever prospect they deem has the highest superstar potential. 

Golden State could also consider flipping the pick in a blockbuster trade for a proven star. A top-four pick would instantly become both the franchise’s juiciest trade asset and its best chance at bridging the end of this era with whatever comes next. Choose your own adventure.

The calculus changes dramatically if the Warriors stay put in the late lottery. But that doesn’t mean Golden State would be bereft of options.

Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg is a ready-made wing with NBA size and intriguing versatility. The Warriors, and particularly Steve Kerr, have extolled the virtues of adding older, experienced prospects as opposed to raw projects. Lendeborg spent six years in college and will enter his rookie season at age 24. Lendeborg was at the Warriors’ play-in game (opens in new tab) against the Clippers in Los Angeles. 

Aday Mara, a 7-foot-3 rim protector who was also on the national champion Michigan team, displayed impressive hands and feel for the game during the Wolverines’ title run. 

Alabama guard Labaron Philon could be an interesting consideration in the late lottery range. He’s a playmaker coming off an elite scoring season and doesn’t shy away from contact, diminishing some concerns about his so-so size. 

Potential risers in the draft who could appeal to the Warriors include Texas wing Dailyn Swain, Baylor wing Cameron Carr, and Duke sharpshooter Isaiah Evans. 

The draft is the Warriors’ easiest avenue for an immediate roster upgrade. Dunleavy’s track record provides them a fair shot at executing.