Warriors GM Mike Dunleavy hasn’t yet missed in the NBA Draft. 

In 2024, he snagged Brandin Podziemski at No. 19 before notching late-second-round singles with Will Richard and Quinten Post. 

Soon, Dunleavy’s draft hit streak will be on the line, with the Warriors’ biggest swing yet. Golden State has the 11th overall pick in a loaded 2026 NBA Draft and can’t afford to whiff. The Warriors have only a handful of healthy players on the roster and have needs across the board: playmaking to support Steph Curry, wings to hold things down as Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody recover, and possibly a center, depending on how the summer goes for Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis. Size, athleticism, scoring, talent. Everything. 

There’s less than a month until the draft for Golden State to sort it all out. Until then, prospects will continue to filter through Chase Center for workouts and interviews. 

It’s impossible to forecast exactly whom the Warriors will pick at No. 11, because nobody knows which players will be available when Golden State is on the clock. A slew of talented point guards are generally mocked to go between Nos. 5 and 9, but not all those teams need point guards. 

“We’ll just draft who we think is going to be the best player for us with our franchise moving forward,” Dunleavy said May 15. “That’s what we’ve always done. Particularly the last few years, we were pretty good about it, whether it’s first or second round, whatever. We’re a little higher this year, but we’ll take the same approach.” 

But what exactly is that approach? 

Perhaps the best way to think about the Warriors’ strategy is to identify overarching traits the team has historically targeted. Do the Warriors have a type? If so, should they stick to it? The draft is an imperfect science, and there’s no North Star, but teams that  are organized around certain principles seem to have the most success over time. 

The Thunder, for instance, seem to clearly value size and athleticism. The last prospect GM Sam Presti drafted who was listed as shorter than 6-foot-3 was Cam Payne in 2015. That is more than a decade of staying on brand. 

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The Spurs are another example. They’ve had generational lottery luck, to be sure, but are also regarded as one of the league’s best-run organizations. Their evaluations haven’t been perfect, but they tend to skew toward versatility. Even their biggest misfires — Jeremy Sochan and Josh Primo — were projected to be at least multi-positional defenders. Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, and Derrick White are wings with the ability to handle the rock and defend up and down the positional spectrum. 

The Heat, who rarely take international players, seem to prioritize the intangibles that come with college experience and trust their organizational culture to develop homegrown talent. 

The trait most recent Warriors draft picks can be most closely, consistently associated with is basketball IQ and experience. Richard, Post, and Podziemski each spent multiple years in college and have displayed a level of decision-making beyond that of many rookies. Steve Kerr likes to say basketball is a decision-making sport, and collecting players who have sound judgment with the ball seems like a sound strategy. 

But before that trio, the Warriors weren’t exactly aligned with that characteristic. Neither James Wiseman — the franchise’s biggest miss since Ekpe Udoh — nor Jonathan Kuminga quite match that description. Neither did Jordan Poole the year before, but he turned out to be an excellent selection as a genuine contributor to Golden State’s 2022 title. 

There’s no perfect system. Even the best evaluators have their misses. Presti isn’t perfect. 

If the Warriors’ preference is high-IQ and experience, one prospect truly stands out: Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg. His unorthodox developmental path led him to play three JUCO seasons, two at UAB, and one for the championship-winning Wolverines. 

Lendeborg measured 6-foot-9 at the combine and has an all-around game, with the ability to initiate offense with the ball and attack closeouts as a secondary creator. His 7-foot-3 wingspan makes it possible for him to play as a small-ball center too. 

Arizona guard Brayden Burries also qualifies as a high-IQ option, though he had a less productive season than Lendeborg. The freshman is one of those guards who could slip out of the top 10 depending on how the draft unfolds. 

Neither a true floor general nor a deadeye shooter, Burries made winning plays with and without the ball as a freshman. If Burries hits his ceiling, his NBA destiny is probably somewhere between Danny Green and Derrick White. In other words, someone who fits into any lineup, who can be the third or fourth best player on a contender, and can be a player every team would want. 

If the Warriors’ draft philosophy boils down to something like high-IQ, high-character players, both Lendeborg and Burries would be consistent options.

When it comes to prospects who might not fit as cleanly into that description, Nate Ament comes to mind. The forward has tantalizing tools but tended to float in and out of games during his freshman year at Tennessee. Like many rookies, he might need time to develop his feel for the game at the NBA level. On the developmental spectrum, he’s closer to where Kuminga and Wiseman were at their drafts. 

Darius Acuff Jr. is likewise in a different category. A prodigious bucket-getter at Arkansas, he measured at 6-foot-2 and comes with defensive concerns. Acuff seems unlikely to make it past the Kings, but he’s an example of an undeniable talent who may not align with the Warriors’ draft tendencies. 

The Warriors have made six lottery picks since drafting Curry in 2009 and haven’t used any of them on a playmaking guard. It’s a small sample size — and one that spans multiple front offices — but the only score-first guard they’ve selected in the first round was Jordan Poole, with the 28th pick in 2019. A player like Acuff would be somewhat of an outlier. 

Outliers aren’t necessarily bad, of course. A player like Acuff or Ament, who may be outside of Golden State’s comfort zone for one reason or another, might end up having the best career. 

At this stage of the Warriors’ team-building process, and with essentially a blank slate around Curry to start the year, Golden State has to nail the draft. That might mean going with the best player available, regardless of position. 

It might mean disregarding priors and redefining what it means to be a Warriors-type prospect. 

Or it might mean sticking with their process. Dunleavy has earned some benefit of the doubt in a short time. 

“I’m confident we can get a good player,” the GM said. “And hopefully that player will have an opportunity next year to perform, produce, help us. Given the state of the injuries with Jimmy and Moses, my guess is they’re going to have more of an opportunity than maybe in another year, so that will be there. Again, the most important thing is just the long-term development, so make sure we get that right.”