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The April surprise of sexual assault allegations against Swalwell has put a flame under what was an underwhelming and largely unpredictable governor’s race. But that has all changed with what looks to be an almost certain exit from the contest by the East Bay Congressman — and the rise of Tom Steyer, as data and polling expert Lakshya Jain (opens in new tab) tells Power Play.

“The question is, what can people attack him on in the last 50 days until the primary? It would have to be that he’s a billionaire,” said Jain, head of political data at The Argument (opens in new tab).

“It would have to be through an us-versus-them campaign, saying he's one of them; he’s not one of us. But I don’t expect that to work. People liken him to Mike Bloomberg, but Steyer is nowhere near as controversial with Democrats as Bloomberg is.”

We caught up with Jain on Sunday morning to talk about where things go now that Swalwell’s candidacy appears dead in the water. The interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.

Power Play: People were worried about a Democratic lockout. How does that play into the Swalwell news?

Lakshya Jain: If Steve Hilton takes 20% to 25%, the other Republican is getting 10% to 15% at most. So what that means for Democrats is, the already slim fear of a lockout has essentially gone to zero, and that candidate who’s going to advance on the Democratic side in the top-two primary is going to be, in all likelihood, Steyer, because with Swalwell as a front-runner now out, the person next up is going to be who has the highest name recognition. That’s Steyer.

PP: What about Katie Porter or Matt Mahan?

LJ: Porter doesn't have enough time on the airwaves, and she’s not high-profile enough to really break through. Mahan is a candidate who I think exists on Twitter alone. Mahan is the classic candidate that sounds great to postgraduate voters but doesn’t really register with the majority of people, because they don't pay 24/7 attention to politics.

PP: Lots of unions are dropping their support of Swalwell. What’s going to happen with those endorsements, and does it even matter?

LJ: A labor union's endorsement’s impact is two things. One, it is a powerful weapon in a place where the population is overwhelmingly working class clustered within a bunch of small areas and turnout is low. California doesn’t really check those boxes. Number two, a labor union’s endorsement is a signal to people saying, go ahead and back this person. That used to be a lot more powerful. This is not the same America in a labor sense, as it was in 1975. A labor union’s endorsement is not a bad thing to have, but it is not going to compensate for [Steyer’s] $100 million on the airwaves.

PP: What should people be watching for in the coming weeks?

LJ: Look to see where that Swalwell support really goes. This race has become much more high-profile now. People have started paying attention all of a sudden. The “don’t know” share of Democrats is very, very high. And so I would expect to see that that ceiling of 12% to 15% that all these Democrats have been stuck with starts to break, and someone breaks the 20% mark, and the first person to break that is very, very likely to win the actual primary. — Gabe Greschler

SECOND CHOICE MATTERS: With Swalwell under mounting pressure, rival campaigns are moving fast to capture his political base. Billionaire climate activist Steyer, a San Francisco resident and leading contender, sees an opportunity.

Friday afternoon, Steyer initially issued a statement (opens in new tab) supporting Swalwell's victims then followed up with a strong reaction (opens in new tab) saying Swalwell “should be nowhere near any position of power” and calling on him to drop out and resign.

According to a source inside the campaign, Steyer’s team is actively courting Swalwell’s supporters and endorsers. A notable shift is that Rep. Jared Huffman, the North Bay congressman who was undecided before the Swalwell fallout, is now officially backing Steyer.

“Tom Steyer has spent his career advancing bold climate action and standing up to Big Oil and special interests that threaten our environment and our future. We need a leader who will take on fossil fuel companies, protect our natural resources, and build a more affordable California,” Huffman said in a statement.

Internal polling shared by the Steyer campaign (opens in new tab) suggests that 31% of Swalwell supporters list Porter as their second choice, and 25% are choosing Steyer. — Han Li

Got tips? Send to us at [email protected].

DEMS IN THE DARK: While it’s not a surprise Democrats pulled their support of Swalwell following the allegations, the swiftness did shock even the most jaded of political watchers.

One reason behind his meteorically quick collapse: Swalwell gave his personal guarantee to endorsers and state party leaders days before the Chronicle and CNN’s story dropped, when the news was bubbling in vague ways on X and other social media platforms.

The New York Times today reported (opens in new tab) his discussions with endorsers, but Power Play is told he also gave his assurances to top California Democrats, who decidedly were split at their convention in February and hadn’t endorsed any gubernatorial candidate.

Swalwell’s message: Everything’s fine. The news that would come would not be pretty, but everything that would emerge would show he had consensual relationships. As one top Dem insider told Power Play, Swalwell made it clear he had “not actively harmed anyone.”

When the news dropped, Democrats weren’t just alarmed at the severity of the allegations — it was clear Swalwell had downplayed just how bad things would be. He broke their trust.

At the Democratic National Committee meeting Friday in New Orleans, the executive committee was convening at a tribute to Jesse Jackson when the Chronicle and CNN’s news broke over their phones.

The crisis immediately started a conversation on the floor to assemble a joint letter (opens in new tab) calling on him to end his campaign for governor. One of those signatories was Christine Pelosi, who is on the CA DEM executive committee and the DNC executive committee, and a candidate for the state senate.

“I was shocked. I had my ‘Keep hope alive’ sign. I was there to honor Jesse Jackson. And instead, that’s what we were doing,” Pelosi said.

“We Californians are going through something right now. To those survivors — we think you should be heard and supported. We keep saying this, but it continues to be true. We can’t have people abuse power. No one is above accountability. We need to believe women.”

“People are burning up the phones saying, ‘Who’s next?’” Pelosi said. The remaining gubernatorial candidates need to think hard about what they do next, she added.

“If anyone else has anything else, now is the time to let us know.” — Joe Fitzgerald Rodriguez

ALAMEDA D.A. WEIGHS IN: The allegations against Swalwell are drawing scrutiny on both coasts. Chronicle and CNN’s stories indicated that a 2024 sexual assault allegation took place at a hotel in New York, prompting an investigation from Manhattan’s prosecutors.

A separate 2019 allegation — following a gathering at a Pleasanton restaurant — may have occurred at a nearby hotel in Alameda County.

The Alameda County district attorney's office confirmed it is reviewing the matter.

“[We] became aware of recent media reports concerning allegations of sexual misconduct involving Congressman Eric Swalwell,” the office said in a statement.

“At this time, our office is in the process of evaluating whether any alleged criminal conduct occurred within Alameda County. We will review and assess all available information to determine what further action can be taken.” — H.L. & Cyrus Farivar

CHINESE SPY CASE BACK? This is not the first time Swalwell has been involved in a major scandal.

A 2020 report by Axios (opens in new tab) revealed that suspected Chinese operative Christine Fang, also known as Fang Fang, spent years cultivating ties with rising U.S. politicians, including Swalwell. Fang was also said to have had sexual relationships (opens in new tab) with two mayors of Midwestern cities.

Swalwell cut off contact with her in 2015 after an FBI defensive briefing. Fang later left the U.S. and has not returned. There was no evidence that Fang obtained classified information, nor any indication that Swalwell engaged in wrongdoing or knowingly participated in espionage.

Now, with reports that the FBI may revisit or release materials tied to the case, Swalwell has responded with a cease-and-desist letter (opens in new tab). It’s unclear what the FBI will do now, given the swift collapse of Swalwell’s campaign, but that decade-old counterintelligence episode may be back in the spotlight. — H.L.

OUT OF THE HOUSE: Eight members of Congress said they’d vote to expel Swalwell, though that number may change in the coming days or even hours. They are four Republicans: Reps. Anna Paulina Luna, Byron Donalds, Nancy Mace, and Mike Lawler; and four Democrats, Reps. Huffman, Pramilla Jayapal, Teresa Leger Fernández, and Eugene Vindman. 

Eight down, 282 to go. A two-thirds majority of members present and voting is required to expel a member of Congress. And the hunt is expanding to other members.

In a Fox News interview (opens in new tab), Rep. Ro Khanna of California said Swalwell should resign and called for House ethics and criminal investigations. When asked if Swalwell should be expelled, he said yes but expanded that remit to Republicans who are similarly accused. — J.F.R.