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The 40-game mark is a milestone in baseball, but it didn’t take Buster Posey until this point to diagnose all the issues plaguing the 16-24 San Francisco Giants.

At the quarter pole, playoff races start to take shape, players off to hot starts begin to generate All-Star buzz, and players who never got going wind up on the bench. Posey’s Giants were so dreadful through the first six weeks of the season that he couldn’t sit still and hope for the best.

It’s possible Eldridge, who hit his first home run Saturday, and Rodríguez, who delivered a walk-off single in the Giants’ win Sunday, will spark a turnaround. It’s also unlikely the Giants will surge into the wild-card race without Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, and Matt Chapman leading the way.

At the 40-game mark, sample sizes stop becoming an excuse, and Devers, Adames, and Chapman have all been disappointments.

Right now, it’s more likely the Giants sell than buy at the trade deadline. It crushed Posey to send Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers, and Mike Yastrzemski away for prospects last year, but at the Giants’ current pace, he’ll need to listen to offers on pending free agents, including left-hander Robbie Ray and second baseman Luis Arráez.

It’s unlikely Posey would commit to a full-scale rebuild in the middle of a season, but the Bailey trade provided clues about the Giants’ priorities if they begin to focus on the future. 

The farm system has several highly touted position-player prospects, including Josuar Gonzalez and Luis Hernández, who are years away from an MLB debut, but it lacks premium pitching talent. The acquisition of left-hander Matt Wilkinson, off to a tremendous start at Double-A, bolsters the Giants’ depth, while adding the No. 29 draft pick enables Posey to select at least one highly regarded pitcher in the top 30 this year. 

Posey has developed a reputation for dramatic moves, but so far, his most important decisions haven’t turned the Giants into contenders. Neither the Adames signing nor the Devers trade have aged well, and the choice to pick up Bob Melvin’s 2026 option, fire him, and hire Tennessee coach Tony Vitello was costly and not transformative.

It’s anyone’s guess as to which lever Posey pulls next, but he’s made one thing clear: He doesn’t need a huge sample size to make big, bold moves.